Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent, intense and have affected many millions of people from every region and sector across North America (Canada, USA and Mexico). Accelerating climate-change hazards pose significant risks to the well-being of North American populations and the natural, managed and human systems on which they depend (high confidence1 ). Addressing these risks has been made more urgent by delays due to misinformation about climate science that has sowed uncertainty and impeded recognition of risk (high confidence). {14.2, 14.3}

Without limiting warming to 1.5°C, key risks to North America are expected to intensify rapidly by mid-century (high confidence). These risks will result in irreversible changes to ecosystems, mounting damages to infrastructure and housing, stress on economic sectors, disruption of livelihoods, and issues with mental and physical health, leisure and safety. Immediate, widespread and coordinated implementation of adaptation measures aimed at reducing risks and focused on equity have the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans, ensure sustainable livelihoods and protect the long-term biodiversity, and ecological and economic productivity, in North America (high confidence). Enhanced sharing of resources and tools for adaptation across economic, social, cultural and national entities enables more effective short- and long-term responses to climate change. {14.2, 14.4, 14.5, 14.6, 14.7}

Earth’s climate is currently changing in significant ways as a result of human activities, and future projections indicate continued and possibly accelerating change without reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Gutiérrez et al., 2021; IPCC, 2021). Climate change affects human and natural systems; this chapter provides an assessment of present and future climate-change impacts, risks and adaptation for North America, including Mexico, Canada, the USA and coastal waters within the 370-km exclusive economic zone. We do not consider Hawaii and other island territories of the USA in depth as they are assessed in Chapter 15. Chapter 14 assesses evidence from Arctic Canada and Alaska, which is synthesised in Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Polar Regions (CCP6).

Evidence from Indigenous knowledge (IK) systems is included in this chapter to assess climate-change risks and solutions in North America following the framing provided in Chapter 1 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) (Abram et al., 2019) and Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) (IPCC, 2019a). Indigenous contributing authors provided this assessment, reflecting the importance of meaningfully including IK in assessment processes (Ford, 2012; Ford et al., 2016; Hill et al., 2020). This addition represents an important advancement since AR5 (IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014).

Our main point of departure was the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for WGII (IPCC, 2014). Key findings drawn from the Executive Summary for the North America chapter are summarised in Table 14.1. Subsequent IPCC reports, such as Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; IPCC, 2018), SROCC (IPCC, 2019b) and SRCCL (IPCC, 2019a), also informed the assessment. We additionally incorporated recent national climate assessments of the USA (USGCRP, 2018) and Canada (Bush and Lemmen, 2019; Warren and Lulham, 2021) as well as the Sixth National Communication of Mexico to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (SEMARNAT and INECC, 2018).

Table 14.1 | Key findings from AR5 North America chapter (Romero-Lankao et al., 2014 b)

Chapter 14 sections are organised to address themes and content as contained in the IPCC-approved outline for regions. Regional climate changes assessed within North America are keyed to Figure 14.1 using four-letter abbreviations (e.g., CA-ON, US-SE, MX-NW). The assessment addresses recent and future climate for North America, the impacts, risks and adaptations within sectors, key risksacross sectors (KR), the nature of adaptation and sustainable development pathways as well as two additional sections on Indigenous Peoples and perceptions of climate change. Seven boxes are used to highlight topics of interdisciplinary nature while four frequently asked questions (FAQ) were produced in plain language for communication to the public. The chapter utilises the framework as well as designated terms in the standardised process for evaluating and characterising the degree of certainty in assessment findings developed through the expert judgement process (Section 1.3.4; Mach et al., 2017). The Glossary [Annex II] provides definitions for terms and concepts used across the report.

Trends in observed and projected physical climate variables, and changes in extreme weather and climate events, are summarised in this section. Many of the assessments here are adapted from AR6 WGI (IPCC, 2021), especially Chapters 11 (Seneviratne et al., 2021) and 12 (Ranasinghe et al., 2021), and the Atlas (Gutiérrez et al., 2021a, b). Ranasinghe et al., 2021, Section 12.4.6, assesses North American climatic impact drivers without assessing their impacts or associated risks. The WGI assessments are augmented in this section with regionally specific support from recent national climate assessments or original literature.

Indigenous knowledge and science are resources for understanding climate-change impacts and adaptive strategies (very high confidence) (SM14.1; Table SM14.1). The Indigenous Peoples of North America have contributed substantially to, and continue to contribute to, the growing literature, scholarship and research on climate change (Barreiro, 1999; Houser et al., 2001; Mustonen, 2005; Bennett et al., 2014; Maynard, 2014; Merculieff et al., 2017; FAQI, 2019; Ijaz, 2019; BIA, 2021). For thousands of years, Indigenous Peoples have developed and relied on their own knowledge systems for sustaining their health, cultures and arts, livelihoods and political security (Battiste and Henderson, 2000; Colombi, 2012; Nelson and Shilling, 2018). Diverse IK systems in North America consider weather and climate as major dimensions of understanding the relationship between society and the environment. Indigenous Peoples have distinct knowledge of climate change, over extensive temporal measures (Trosper, 2002; Barrera-Bassols and Toledo, 2005; Gearheard et al., 2013). The basis of this knowledge is often Indigenous Peoples’ long and profound relationships with the environment, that is, to the ecosystems, waters, ice, lands, territories and resources in their homelands. The relationships have been forged by adaptation to a particular environment and involve systematic activities. Indigenous harvesters, including hunters, fishers, agriculturalists and plant gatherers, observe and monitor environmental change, and engage in systematic reflection with one another about trends over short- and long-term periods (Sakakibara, 2010; Sánchez-Cortés and Chavero, 2011; Kermoal and Altamirano-Jiménez, 2016; Metcalfe et al., 2020b). The holistic perspective of the interrelated and interdependent nature of ecosystems is a distinct characteristic of IK and often contrasts with findings and results of science alone. Indigenous harvesters, agriculturalists, leaders, culture bearers, educators and government employees develop theoretical and practical knowledge of seasonal and climate change that seeks to furnish the best available knowledge and information to inform climate-change policy and decisions (Barrera-Bassols and Toledo, 2005; McNeeley and Shulski, 2011). Examples of theoretical knowledge systems include Indigenous calendars of seasonal change and systems of laws and protocols for environmental stewardship (see Box 14.1) (Kootenai Culture Committee, 2015; Donatuto et al., 2020).

The practice and use of IK systems is recognised and affirmed by the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) (UNGA, 2007), and consistent with reports and guidance from UN bodies including the High Commissioner for Human Rights (Bachelet, 2019), Expert Mechanism on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNGA, 2015; UNGA, 2018), the Permanent Forum of Indigenous Issues (Dodson, 2007; Cunningham Kain et al., 2013; Sena and UNPFII, 2013; Sena, 2014; Quispe and UNPFII, 2015) and the Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (Cross-Chapter Box INDIG in Chapter 18; Toledo, 2013; UNGA, 2017). The right to self-determination, control over territorial development and cultural integrity make it important that climate scientists practise equitable engagement of IK and IK holders. There is a growing literature of success and lessons learned from co-production of knowledge between IK systems and diverse scientific traditions relating to climate change (Behe et al., 2018; Latulippe and Klenk, 2020; Camacho-Villa et al., 2021).

Current and projected climate-change impacts disproportionately harm Indigenous Peoples’ livelihoods and economies (very high confidence). Indigenous Peoples’ livelihoods in North America include a range of activities closely tied to traditional lands, waters and territories. These activities support a core economic base and an array of sustenance, including financial stability, food security, health and nutrition, safety, and adequate provisions and reserves of important supplies and resources, as well as the passing down of traditional knowledge. Indigenous lives and livelihoods are at risk in the following ways: Indigenous persons are more at risk of losing their lives due to factors that are exacerbated by climate-change impacts (Ford et al., 2006; Barbaras, 2014; Khalafzai et al., 2019). Indigenous Peoples’ livelihood practices are being distressed, interrupted and, in some cases, made entirely inaccessible. Livelihood activities known and anticipated to be impacted by climate change are food security (Meakin and Kurtvits, 2009; Wesche and Chan, 2010; Nyland et al., 2017), harvesting of fish, plants and wildlife (Dittmer, 2013; Parlee et al., 2014; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; ICC Alaska, 2020), agriculture (St Regis Mohawk Tribe, 2013; Shinbrot et al., 2019; Settee, 2020), transportation (Swinomish Indian Tribe Community, 2010; Hori et al., 2018a; Hori et al., 2018b), and tourism and recreation (ICC Canada, 2008). Indigenous Peoples have been active in gathering to assess the impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, one example being the Bering Sea Elders Advisory Group (Bering Sea Elders Advisory Group and Alaska Marine Conservation Council, 2011; Bering Sea Elders Group, 2016).

Climate-change impacts have harmful effects on Indigenous Peoples’ public health, physical health and mental health, including harmful effects connected to the cultural and community foundations of health (very high confidence). Health and climate change is a major issue for Indigenous Peoples (Section 14.5.6; Ford, 2012; Ford et al., 2014; Gamble et al., 2016; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; Middleton et al., 2020a; Donatuto et al., 2021). Climate-change impacts and risks affect Indigenous Peoples’ health negatively in different ways. Indigenous health, as tied to nutrition and exercise, is threatened when local foods are less available and harvesting activities are less possible to practise (Norton-Smith et al., 2016b ; Rosol et al., 2016; Gonzalez et al., 2018). Indigenous Peoples experience widespread public health concerns from severe droughts (Stewart et al., 2020; Schlinger et al., 2021; Wiecks et al., 2021), extreme heat (Doyle et al., 2013; Campo Caap, 2018; Kloesel et al., 2018a; Meadow et al., 2018; ITK, 2019; Ute Mountain Ute Tribe and Wood Environment Infrastructure Solutions Inc, 2019; Whyte et al., 2021), unpredictable precipitation patterns (Chavarria and Gutzler, 2018; Tom et al., 2018; Tlingit and Haida, 2019; Schlinger et al., 2021), flooding and coastal erosion (Jamestown S’klallam Tribe, 2016; Norton-Smith et al., 2016b ; Puyallup Tribe of Indians, 2016; Marks-Marino, 2019; Ristroph, 2019; Marks-Marino, 2020b; Schlinger et al., 2021), wildfires and wildfire smoke (Edwin and Mölders, 2018; USEPA, 2018; Christianson et al., 2019a; ITK, 2019; Marks-Marino, 2020a; Mottershead et al., 2020; Woo et al., 2020; Wiecks et al., 2021), algal blooms (Peacock et al., 2018; Gobler, 2020; Donatuto et al., 2021; Preece et al., 2021; Schlinger et al., 2021), storms and hurricanes (Rioja-Rodríguez et al., 2018), influxes of invasive species (Pfeiffer and Huerta Ortiz, 2007; Pfeiffer and Voeks, 2008; Voggesser et al., 2013; Bad River Band of Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians and Abt Associates Inc., 2016; Scott et al., 2017; Reo and Ogden, 2018; Middleton et al., 2020a) and changing production systems (Rioja-Rodríguez et al., 2018). Indigenous Peoples’ mental health is at risk and has already been affected negatively by climate change (Donatuto et al., 2021). Water security is one of the most serious concerns to Indigenous Peoples’ health and well-being (Vanderslice, 2011; Cozzetto et al., 2013a; Redsteer et al., 2013; Hanrahan et al., 2014; Chief et al., 2016; Gamble et al., 2016; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; Kloesel et al., 2018a; Tom et al., 2018; Martin et al., 2020a; Arsenault, 2021). When some people are less able to practise traditional, cultural, social and family activities, they can become alienated, compounding the negative effects of traumas Indigenous persons already experience. Traumas include historic and continuing land dispossession, assimilation, social marginalisation and discrimination, and food and financial insecurities. The practise of cultural traditions are associated with education, harvesting and agriculture, exercise, positive social relationships and family life, which play foundational roles in the achievement of physical, public and mental health (Bell et al., 2010; Cunsolo Willox et al., 2015; Jantarasami et al., 2018b; Norgaard and Tripp, 2019; Billiot et al., 2020b; Adams et al., 2021; Donatuto et al., 2021).

Indigenous Peoples are affected dramatically by climate-related disasters and other climate-related extreme environmental events (very high confidence). Indigenous Peoples face numerous threats and have already been harmed by, and are planning for, extreme weather events with associations to climate change, including hurricanes and tornadoes (Oneida Nation Pre-Disaster Mitigation Plan Steering Committee and Bay-Lake Regional Planning Commission, 2016; Emanuel, 2019; Cooley, 2021; Marks-Marino, 2021; Zambrano et al., 2021), heatwaves (Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, 2016; Wall, 2017; La Jolla Band of Luiseno Indians, 2019; Mashpee Wampanoag, 2019; Wiecks et al., 2021), ocean warming and MHWs (Hoh Indian Tribe, 2016; Port Gamble S’klallam Tribe, 2016; Port Gamble S’klallam Tribe, 2020; State of Alaska, 2020; Muckleshoot Tribal Council, 2021; Port Gamble S’klallam Tribe, 2021), wildfires (Voggesser et al., 2013; Billiot et al., 2020a; Cozzetto et al., 2021b; Gaughen et al., 2021; Morales et al., 2021; National Tribal Air Association, 2021; Zambrano et al., 2021), permafrost thaw (Haynes et al., 2018; Low, 2020), flooding (Riley et al., 2011; Ballard and Thompson, 2013; Brubaker et al., 2014; Thompson et al., 2014; Burkett et al., 2017; Quinault Indian Nation, 2017; Ristroph, 2019; Sharp, 2019; Thistlethwaite et al., 2020) and drought (Knutson et al., 2007; Chief et al., 2016; Redsteer et al., 2018; Sioui, 2019; Bamford et al., 2020; Sauchyn et al., 2020). Some Indigenous Peoples are facing climate-change impacts that generate community-led permanent relocation and resettlement as an adaptation option (Maldonado et al., 2021). Coastal erosion is one climate-change issue that is often connected to Indigenous Peoples planning to resettle, including vulnerability connected to higher sea levels and storm surges (Quinault Indian Nation, 2017; Bronen et al., 2018; Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians, 2020). Adapting to new settlement areas threatens the continuity of communities. In a number of cases, Indigenous Peoples’ having less access to adequate infrastructure is a driver of vulnerability to climate-related disasters and extreme weather events (Doyle et al., 2018; Patrick, 2018; Cozzetto et al., 2021a; Indigenous Climate Action et al., 2021). Disasters and extreme events are particularly severe when their impacts are compounded by inadequate infrastructure. Lack of flood protection infrastructure on Indigenous reserve communities leads to displacement, loss of homes and perpetuates disproportionate levels of risk to extreme weather events (Cunsolo et al., 2020; Fayazi et al., 2020; Yellow Old Woman-Munro et al., 2021).

Indigenous self-determination and self-governance are the foundations of adaptive strategies that improve understanding and research on climate change, develop actionable community plans and policies on climate change, and have demonstrable influence in improving the design and allocation of national, regional and international programmes relating to climate change (very high confidence). Historical and contemporary developments have crystallised international norms recognising the distinct status, role and rights of Indigenous Peoples in the form of significant international human rights instruments. Premier among them is the UNDRIP (UNGA A/RES/61/295), which has received universal consensus since its adoption by the UN General Assembly. The UN member States have affirmed the right of self-determination (Article 3, UNDRIP) regarded as the prerequisite to the exercise and enjoyment of all other human rights.

The integrity of the environment is impacting all of humanity, including Indigenous Peoples, their lands, territories, resources and their communities. Through self-determination, durable, sustainable and robust contributions from those with close, symbiotic relationships with the environment can be revealed in favour of all humanity. Indigenous Peoples of North America have been engaged in wide-ranging activities to address climate change (Doolittle, 2010; Parker and Grossman, 2012; Abate and Kronk, 2013; STACCWG, 2021). They include actions in the spheres of education (Donatuto et al., 2020; McClain, 2021; Morales et al., 2021), development of IK and science (Maldonado et al., 2016; AFN, 2020; Ferguson and Weaselboy, 2020; Huntington et al., 2021a; Jones et al., 2021; Sawatzky et al., 2021), adaptation planning and implementation (Angel et al., 2018a; Tribal Climate Adaptation Guidebook Writing Team et al., 2018; Hepler and Kronk Warner, 2019; Tribal Adaptation Menu Team, 2019; Metcalfe et al., 2020b), and political action and diplomacy (including treaty-based diplomacy) (Grossman, 2008; Kronk Warner and Abate, 2013; Callison, 2015).

Ten key risks from climate change were identified for North American based on definitions and assessment approaches outlined in Chapter 16, which were extended to include the development of a risk database and analysis that included expert evaluation of interactions between climate hazards and sectors (Figure 14.11; SM14.3).

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