Adverse impacts of climate change, development deficits and inequality exacerbate each other. Existing vulnerabilities and inequalities intensify with adverse impacts of climate change (high confidence1 ). These impacts disproportionately affect marginalised groups, amplifying inequalities and undermining sustainable development across all regions (high confidence). Due to their socioeconomic conditions and the broader development context, many poor communities, especially in regions with high levels of vulnerability and inequality, are less resilient to diverse climate impacts (high confidence). {8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, 8.3.3}

Under all emissions scenarios, climate change reduces capacities for adaptive responses and limits choices and opportunities for sustainable development. Higher levels of global warming lead to greater constraints on societies. Climate change increases the threat of chronic and sudden onset development challenges, such as poverty traps and food insecurity (high confidence). Adaptation interventions and transformative solutions that prioritise inclusive and wide-ranging climate resilient development and the reduction of poverty and inequality are increasingly seen as necessary to minimise loss and damage from climate change (high confidence). {8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.1, 8.3.2, 8.3.3}

Observed societal impacts of climate change, such as mortality due to floods, droughts and storms, are much greater for regions with high vulnerability compared to regions with low vulnerability, which reveals the different starting points that regions have in their move towards climate resilient development (high confidence). Observed average mortality from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for regions and countries ranked as very high vulnerable, such as Mozambique, Somalia, Nigeria, Afghanistan and Haiti compared to very low vulnerable regions and countries, such as UK, Australia, Canada and Sweden in the last decade (high confidence). Over 3.3 billion people are living in countries classified as very highly or highly vulnerable, while around 1.8 billion people live in countries with low or very low vulnerability (high confidence). Approximately 3.6 billion people live in low and lower middle-income countries, which are most vulnerable and disproportionally bear the human costs of disasters due to extreme weather events and hazards (high confidence). The population in most vulnerable countries is projected to increase significantly by 2050 and 2100, while the population in countries with low vulnerability is projected to decrease or grow only slightly. Vulnerability is a result of many interlinked issues concerning poverty, migration, inequality, access to basic services, education, institutions and governance capacities, often made more complex by past developments, such as histories of colonialism (high confidence). {8.3.2, 8.3.3}

A growing range of economic and non-economic losses have been detected and attributed to climate extremes and slow-onset events under observed increases in global temperatures (medium evidence, high agreement ). If future climate change under high emissions scenarios continues and increases risks, without strong adaptation measures, losses and damages will likely 2 be concentrated among the poorest vulnerable populations (high confidence). The intersection of inequality and poverty presents significant adaptation limits, resulting in residual risks for people and groups in vulnerable situations, including women, youth, elderly, ethnic and religious minorities, Indigenous People and refugees. Climate change is likely to force economic transitions among the poorest groups, accelerating the switch from agriculture to other forms of wage labour, with implications for labour migration and urbanisation (medium evidence, high agreement ). Under an inequality scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4) the projected number of people living in extreme poverty may increase by 122 million by 2030 (medium confidence). {8.2, 8.3.4, 8.4.1, 8.4.5, Figure 8.6, Box 8.5, 16.5.2.3.4}

Both climate change and vulnerability threaten the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (medium confidence). This undermines progress toward various goals such as no poverty (SDG1), zero hunger (SDG2), gender equality (SDG5) and reducing inequality (SDG10), among others (medium evidence, high agreement ). Gender inequality and discrimination are among the barriers to adaptation (high confidence). {8.2.1¸8.4.5} Also maladaptation can lead to additional complex and compounding future risks and threaten sustainable development (high confidence). {8.4.5.5, 8.2.1.7}

Under higher emissions scenarios and increasing climate hazards, the potential for social tipping points increases (medium confidence). Even with moderate climate change3 people in vulnerable regions will experience a further erosion of livelihood security that can interact with humanitarian crises, such as displacement and forced migration (high confidence) and violent conflict, and lead to social tipping points (medium confidence). Social tipping points can also be coupled with environmental tipping points. {8.3, 8.4.4}

Vulnerable population groups in most vulnerable regions have the most urgent need for adaptation (high confidence). The most vulnerable regions are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America (high confidence). These regions are characterised by compound challenges of high levels of poverty, a significant number of people without access to basic services, such as water and sanitation, and wealth and gender inequalities, as well as governance challenges. Areas of high human vulnerability are characterised by larger transboundary regional clusters (high confidence). Additional support and structures are needed to reduce the existing gaps between future adaptation needs and current capacities, and to support transitions from vulnerable livelihoods with adequate integration of the Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) systems. Greater investments are required under higher levels of global warming and of inequality (Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5; RCP8.5 and SSP4) (high confidence). {8.3, 8.4, Box 8.6}

The direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened inequalities within societies, thereby increasing existing vulnerabilities to climate change and further limiting the ability of marginalised communities to adapt (medium confidence). The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to increase the adverse consequences of climate change since the financial consequences have led to a shift in priorities and constrain vulnerability reduction (medium confidence). Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic is also influencing the capacities of governmental institutions in developing nations to support planned adaptation and poverty reduction of most vulnerable people/groups, since the crisis also means significant reductions in tax revenues (high confidence). {8.3, 8.4, 8.4.5.5}

Those with climate-sensitive livelihoods and precarious livelihood conditions are often least able to adapt, afforded limited adaptation opportunities and have little influence on decision making (high confidence). Enabling environments that support sustainable development are essential for adaptation and climate resilient development (high confidence). Enabling and supportive environments for adaptation share common governance characteristics, including multiple actors and assets, multiple centres of power at different levels and an effective vertical and horizontal integration between levels (high confidence). Enabling conditions can support livelihood strategies that do not undermine human well-being (medium confidence). {8.5.1, 8.5.2, 8.6.3, 5.13}

Mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change influence inequalities, poverty and livelihood security and thereby aspects of climate justice (medium confidence). Improving coherence between adaptations of different social groups and sectors at different scales can reduce maladaptation, enable mitigation and advance progress towards climate resilience (medium confidence). The poor typically have low carbon footprints but are disproportionately affected by adverse consequences of climate change and also lack access to adaptation options. In many cases, the poor and most vulnerable people and groups are most adversely affected by maladaptation (medium evidence, high agreement ). Climate justice and rights-based approaches are increasingly recognised as key principles within mitigation and adaptation strategies and projects (medium confidence). Narrowing gender gaps can play a transformative role in pursuing climate justice (medium confidence). Climate resilient development is therefore closely coupled with issues of climate justice. Synergies between adaptation and mitigation exist, and these can have benefits for the poor (medium confidence). {8.4, 8.4.5.5, 8.6}

There is increasing evidence that nature-based solutions (e.g., urban green infrastructure, ecosystem-based management) can provide important livelihood options and reduce poverty while also supporting mitigation and adaptation (medium confidence). However, the trade-offs over time between nature-based solutions and their dynamics are insufficiently understood. Appropriate governance, including mainstreaming and policy coherence, supported by adaptation finance that targets the poor and marginalised, is essential for adaptation and climate compatible development (medium confidence). {8.5.2, 8.6.3, 5.14}

The impacts of climate change have already significantly affected livelihoods and living conditions, especially of the poorest and most vulnerable, and will continue to undermine development during the coming century. This chapter assesses the societal consequences of climate change and related hazards in terms of adverse and irreversible consequences for the most vulnerable. To understand societal consequences of climate change, we assess impacts through the perspective of vulnerability, poverty and livelihoods of people. We identify why climate events trigger sudden and slow-onset disasters, and how the most severe, acute and chronic impacts cause and deepen human suffering. We also examine issues of climate justice. Understanding and engaging with climate justice requires a plural focus on the historical social and institutional relations and inequalities that produce climate change, cause people to be vulnerable to climate hazards and shape responses to them (Newell et al., 2021). An assessment of observed impacts on the poorest and their strategies for adaptation carries important lessons for inclusive, broad-based solutions to climate change.

As a starting point, this chapter examines linkages between climate change, specific climate-related hazards and impacts on multidimensional poverty, vulnerability and livelihoods. Past assessments have identified the linkages between climate change, poverty, livelihoods and human vulnerability, and shown how climate change leads to differential consequences for different communities and populations. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) identified socially and geographically disadvantaged people exposed to persistent inequalities at the intersection of various dimensions of discrimination based on gender, age, ethnicity, class and caste (IPCC, 2014a). AR5 also showed evidence that climate change is a universal driver and multiplier of risk that shapes dynamic interactions between these factors. Climate change is one stressor that shapes dynamic and differential livelihood trajectories. Also, the IPCC Special 1.5°C Report (IPCC SR 1.5°C) underscored withvery high confidencethat global mean temperature, harm and human well-being losses are increasing substantially (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018; Roy et al., 2018).

This chapter builds on this, examining equitable development, robust institutions and poverty reduction as essential inputs to societies’ capacity for adaptation (i.e., closes the adaptation gap) in order to avoid losses and damages (L&Ds) from climate change. It assesses quantitative spatio-temporal information on human vulnerability at a global scale and for specific sub-regions, livelihood groups and communities at the local level. The chapter assesses the newest literature on how multidimensional poverty and human vulnerability to climate change is measured and also examined the agreement of different index systems in terms of global hotspots of human vulnerability.

In addition, the chapter explores how climate change affects different livelihoods and livelihood assets and also examines factors that characterise vulnerability to climate change, focusing on different dimensions of human vulnerability and its subsystems (e.g., access to infrastructure services). In this context the chapter also assesses quantitative data to map human vulnerability as well as economic and non-economic losses that are highly relevant for understanding adverse impacts of climate change.

The chapter assesses the newest scientific knowledge on how the most vulnerable and marginalised people are experiencing different climate-influenced hazards and changes, how these groups prepare for and adapt to these changes. Hence, it examines how climate change intersects with broader processes of development. It also considers the various impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of the poorest, the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living. It examines the institutional conditions that promote livelihood resilience in the face of climate change. Quantitative analysis and qualitative data on observed adverse climate change impacts and future projections and trends in vulnerability show that societal impacts of climate change cannot solely be explained by looking at temperature changes or climatic hazards alone.

The chapter provides due consideration of how societal impacts of climate change are emerging as a result of climatic changes, development and vulnerability. In this regard, it also explores how past and present conditions of poverty, inequality and vulnerability determine observed and future societal impacts of climate change, including future adaptive capacities of societies exposed to climate change. It highlights new entry points to address climate risks and adaptation needs through the targeted reduction of poverty, inequity and vulnerability, linking particularly global quantitative information with local livelihood-orientated qualitative information.

The chapter outlines new approaches for identifying social tipping points, meaning moments of rapid, destabilising change across scales that can complement the discussion about physical tipping points in the climate system. It also addresses new perspectives on the baselines for assessing future vulnerabilities, and the potential for irreversible losses, emphasising not only economic but also non-economic losses, which are linked to past and present development trajectories. There is robust evidence on non-economic losses, including the loss of land, livelihoods, social networks, cultural values and the irreversible degradation of ecosystem functions, as observed, for example, in parts of the Amazon. Non-economic losses are intertwined with economic losses to influence human health, nutrition, well-being and social stability, and therefore also influence present and future vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. Non-economic losses from climate change disproportionately affect the poor. People in vulnerable situations are often disproportionately affected as they are less resilient and have less access to institutional support (including protection mechanisms) and coping strategies. This knowledge is key for informing integrated strategies for sustainable livelihood transitions and adaptation.

The chapter assesses newer literature about the synergies and trade-offs for the poorest and most vulnerable people and groups between adaptation–mitigation and sustainable development strategies, which societies must negotiate in order to pursue climate resilient development. It explores synergies and mismatches in key development sectors that the poorest rely on, including agriculture, forestry and energy. It identifies the development strategies, elements of institutional design and financial mechanisms that could support risk reduction and adaptation. Our assessment reveals that successful adaptation is not solely a question of levels of funding, but depends on broader institutional design that determine societal development and enabling conditions for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. An assessment of enabling conditions for adaptation supports the finding that more convergent, integrated and comprehensive approaches to adaptation are needed. The chapter concludes that climate justice requires consideration of the legal, institutional and governance frameworks that significantly determine whether adaptation is successful in addressing the needs of the poor.

Thus, intersections between climate hazards and socioeconomic development are assessed from the point of view of vulnerability, poverty, livelihoods and inequality (see Figure 8.1). Chapter 8 adopts this wider perspective to examine the differential nature of observed and future disproportionate vulnerabilities (i.e., who is most susceptible to climate hazards and events, where, at the core to understanding of what scale and why?), as well as the inequalities inherent in adaptation and mitigation solutions as part of a wider climate justice perspective adopted in Chapter 8, and challenges for climate resilient development.

Finally, our assessment points towards the fact that human vulnerability to climate change is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that is often influenced by historic development processes, such as structures that originated with colonisation. Also, recent global shocks not directly related to climate change, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and its socioeconomic consequences, impact climate vulnerability and inequitable impacts occurring between countries and within countries. Recent studies show that COVID-19, and other social, economic and political crises, have worsened the circumstances of the poor and further marginalised them.

Overall, the chapter is key in terms of understanding societal impacts of climate change and factors that determine the various differential adverse consequences of climate change on societies. The information presented and assessed is fundamental for informing adaptation and risk reduction strategies, since climatic information alone cannot explain sufficiently why some regions, societies or groups are suffering significantly more under climate change compared to others. Concepts such as vulnerability, intersectionality and climate justice provide important insights on how societal impacts of climate change are influenced and determined by broader societal development contexts.

This section assesses the literature on vulnerability—the assessment of vulnerability at global and national scales—and explores economic and non-economic losses of people and livelihoods exposed to and impacted by climate change. The section examines how climate change threatens livelihoods and juxtaposes global and local level assessments of vulnerability based on empirical data at different scales. The analysis of recent literature underscores that climate change impacts and adaptation needs cannot be understood by looking at climate change only. Vulnerability and livelihood security are seen as an important component for understanding the human dimension of climate change (Rhiney et al., 2016; Cardona, 2017; Byers et al., 2018; Eriksen et al., 2020; Wisner, 2020; Birkmann et al., 2021a; Cole et al., 2021).

Linkages between global and individual vulnerability and livelihood security, including aspects of intersectionality are also assessed. Overall, this Section 8.3 reveals that different countries, societies and specific groups within a society have very different starting points on their move towards climate resilience.

Future climate vulnerability and risks to livelihood security are significantly influenced by present and past development trends, equity and sustainability. Consequently, observed impacts covered in previous sections provide essential insight for enhancing future adaptation and risk reduction. Since the AR5, new research approaches incorporate past lessons to project and assess climate change vulnerability and socioeconomic conditions into the future. Scenario tools and methods are a powerful approach for integrated assessments of emissions pathways, associated warming and development contexts, helpful in guiding analysis of adaptation policy and planning (Berkhout et al., 2014; Birkmann et al., 2021a). Both quantitative and qualitative scenario approaches that assess future vulnerability and risks, as well as livelihood challenges at global, national and local scales, allow experts, planners, decision makers and affected people to articulate and visualise development futures. These approaches can complement emissions pathway scenarios.

This section focuses on adaptation at household and community scales, including options, capacity and enabling environment, which include actions required towards building resilience. The emphasis is on the decision-making space and governance including the role of the state, private sector and other actors. Successful adaptation requires not only identifying adaptation options and assessing their costs and benefits, but also exploiting available mechanisms for expanding the adaptive capacity of human and natural systems (Klein et al., 2014). At the same time, developing suitable responses to hazards for communities and users of climate services is important in ensuring the success of adaptation measures. But despite this, knowledge about adaptation options, including possible actions that can be implemented to improve adaptation and reduce the impacts of climate change hazards, is still limited.

This section evaluates climate resilient development (CRD) focusing on potential synergies between adaptation and mitigation in different sectors, decision-making approaches and adaptation finance, especially for the poor. It examines whether climate change response options, meaning mitigation and adaptation, in different development sectors, create development synergies or trade-offs for low-income households and people living in poverty.

The link between development and climate change was not evaluated comprehensively until the first decades of the 21st century (Figure 8.13; Klein et al., 2005; Tol, 2005). Until recently mitigation and adaptation, the two primary approaches to climate action, have been dealt with separately in climate change science and policy (Landauer et al., 2015). Nevertheless, synergistic ‘co-benefits’ between mitigation and adaptation may be enhanced, and trade-offs reduced, through the holistic empirical evaluation of actions for climate change response (Runhaar et al., 2018). The synergistic effect of mitigation and adaptation has been documented for a few interventions across the globe, however, evidence-based quantification of the synergies and trade-offs are rare.

Where co-benefits have emphasised identifying mitigation–adaptation synergies, a key turn has been evaluating climate compatible development (CCD), ‘development that minimises the harm caused by climate change impacts, while maximising the many human development opportunities presented by a low emission, more resilient future’ (Mitchell and Maxwell, 2010). CCD calls for triple wins, resulting in synergies between mitigation–adaptation–development through single interventions (Figure 8.13; Ellis and Tschakert, 2019). CCD offers specific entry points for identifying ways on how to strengthen synergies between mitigation and adaptation, particularly within the context of low-income countries. Effective integration of emission reductions and accommodation actions for mitigation and adaptation can be win–win strategies, may be cost-efficient (Runhaar et al., 2018) and have the potential to create opportunities to foster sustainable development (Denton et al., 2014).

This assessment identifies and evaluates approaches to CRD ‘that deliberately adopt mitigation and adaptation measures to secure a safe climate, meet basic needs, eliminate poverty and enable equitable, just and sustainable development’. The body of literature on the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, poverty, equity and sustainable development has grown steadily since the AR5 (IPCC, 2014a). The IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018c), suggests that ‘Limiting warming to 1.5°C can be achieved synergistically with poverty alleviation and improved energy security and can provide large public health benefits through improved air quality, preventing millions of premature deaths.’

Implementing the integrative concept of CRD is expected to produce transformative benefits affecting the poorest populations primarily (Roy et al., 2018; Leal Filho et al., 2019). The risks of transformative actions to the poor are diminished when undertaken in the context of good governance at multiple levels, within existing top-down and bottom-up processes, and making use of available levers of policy, technology, education and financial/economic systems (Stringer et al., 2020).

The chapter has moved beyond the IPCC WGII AR5 in that it lays out structural elements of vulnerability and provides quantitative information about climate-related vulnerability hotspots globally complemented by the assessment of poverty, local livelihood vulnerability and sustainable development. The assessment of non-economic losses, and enabling and supportive environments for adaptation are also new aspects.

The chapter provides additional evidence on livelihood resources at local levels that have been impacted by different climate hazards and, globally, that specific hazards (namely, drought and rising temperatures) are more threatening and destabilising to livelihoods than others. There is robust evidence that coping and adaptive capacities erode with increasing GMT—substantial differences are expected between a GMT increase of less than 1.5°C compared to an increase of more than 3°C—and the frequencies of climate hazards, such as heat waves, droughts or floods is likely to increase substantially. Nevertheless, this assessment also revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change for livelihoods and multidimensional poverty differ substantially between different population groups exposed to climate hazards, based on the socioeconomic and governance context. Consequently, societal impacts of climate change need to be understood in the broader context of development and the development challenges that influence exposure, vulnerability and adaptation.

There is robust evidence of the impacts of all climate hazards on the key livelihood resources that the poor depend on. There is high confidence that two climate hazards pose high risk to a broad range of livelihood resources: warming trends and droughts. Meanwhile, the livelihood resources that are globally at greatest risk include people’s bodily health, food security and agricultural productivity (high confidence). Evidence suggests that the fundamental challenge of climate change to livelihoods is that rising temperatures, drought and other hazards endanger human life, and the lives of plants and animals that humans rely on to survive (high confidence). There is now robust evidence that the impacts of climate change on livelihoods are driving people to migrate in search of alternative incomes, and this tendency will increase with rising temperatures. Of greatest concern are people whose development context is compromised by war, conflict and extreme poverty and inequality, such as refugee populations and displaced people.

This chapter reports quantitative evidence of human vulnerability and therefore identifies various spatial hotspots of vulnerability emerging in regional clusters. It reports that significantly more people are living in highly vulnerable context conditions compared to those living in low vulnerability contexts. The assessment revealed that more than 3 million people are living in countries classified as very highly or highly vulnerable (depending on the assessment method and the number of classes used, and countries included). In contrast, approximately 1.8 billion people reside in low or very low vulnerable country contexts. Studies estimate the population in the most vulnerable regions to almost double by the year 2100 (Section 8.4.5.2). When near-term estimates are used, the population growth in highly vulnerable countries is still significantly higher compared to less vulnerable countries. Consequently, this assessment points towards the fact that even if we do not know how societal or community vulnerability will develop in specific areas, it is very likely that in the future, more people will live in destabilised and highly vulnerable country contexts compared to the population today. However, it is important to note that the scientific literature also underscores that trends in vulnerability differ significantly between different world regions and within countries.

The chapter also advances knowledge in terms of the interconnections between human vulnerability, observed losses and adverse consequences. The assessment shows that statistically relevant differences in observed fatalities per hazard event can be explained by hazard intensity and frequency, and are also linked to different levels of vulnerability of a region exposed. Despite all uncertainties about future change, the assessed literature clearly provides an accurate picture of the expected societal impacts of climate change, the requirements for successful adaptation and the need to address the adaptation gap from the perspective of vulnerability.

The chapter shows that intersectionality approaches are becoming increasingly central to grasping how differential vulnerability to climate hazards is experienced by different social groups. Intersectionality recognises that age, gender, class, race and ethnicity are reinforcing social phenomena, shaping social inequalities and experiences of the world, and also intersect with climate hazards and vulnerability. Our assessment reveals the central role of maladaptation with robust new evidence on negative consequences of interventions on different social groups. Well-intentioned adaptation can exacerbate past and existing vulnerabilities and undermine livelihoods. There is also evidence that, despite maladaptation, inclusive and sustainable development at the local level can reduce vulnerability.

Since AR5 L&D has taken much more central stage in sustainable development, policy, and poverty and livelihoods discourse. While there is ambiguity about what constitutes L&D, the chapter highlights new evidence of observed L&Ds, including slow-onset impacts (e.g., sea level rise and drought). Our assessment reveals that there is a body of literature that explicitly addresses non-economic losses and that these are experienced everywhere now due to human-induced climate change. These are coupled with advancements in the science of extreme event attribution with new focus on adaptation metrics and vulnerability assessments.

This assessment also identifies emerging evidence of linkages between extreme and slow-onset events, NELD and livelihood shifts. This suggests that losses are leading to a range of shifts in livelihoods, which may be easier for some social groups than others, and which have implications for livelihoods security across transboundary scales. Yet, climate change is only one driver. Untangling the drivers of vulnerability using intersectionality approaches is also critical. Our quantification of vulnerability hotspots supports this concern. It is critical to seek further knowledge on the extent of livelihood shifts among the most vulnerable resulting from specific NELD, for whom, where and at what scale. Gaps in knowledge highlight this as an area that needs further work in order to develop and understand further the full extent and reach of the relationships between extreme and slow-onset climate events, non-economic losses and shifting livelihoods.

This chapter builds on AR5 and the IPCC SR 1.5°C on key limits to the adaptation of natural and social systems that are compounded by the effects of poverty and inequality, such as on water scarcity, ecosystems alteration and degradation, coastal cities in relation to sea level rise, cyclones and coastal erosion, food systems and human health (high confidence). Climate change risks could have substantial negative impacts on climate-sensitive livelihoods of smallholder farmers, fisheries communities, Indigenous People, urban poor and informal settlements, with limits to adaptation evidenced in the loss income, ecosystems, health and increasing migration (high confidence). The chapter also addresses how ecological thresholds and socioeconomic determinants of vulnerabilities are linked to soft and hard adaptation limits, including the potential and magnitude of livelihood risks in the future. For instance, a hard limit associated with losses of coral reefs in a 1.5°C warmer world will lead to substantial loss of income and livelihoods for coastal communities (high confidence), including loss of culture- and place-based attachment (medium confidence). Hard adaptation limits are expected for the Arctic ecosystem. Their threshold will affect residents of Arctic regions dependent on hunting and fishing livelihoods (high confidence). New emerging considerations to ecological limits to adaptation, such as severe glacier retreat and Amazon forest dieback, is expected to affect the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and Indigenous People through crop yield failures, biodiversity loss, reduced hydropower capacity and health (medium evidence). While a knowledge gap remains on the projected risks of increasing global temperature to climate-sensitive livelihoods among Global South countries and specific groups of people, current observations show negative impacts to livelihoods for tens to hundreds of millions of people. Thus, without sustainable, equitable and urgent adaptation measures, maladaptation risks are likely to further increase vulnerability, marginalisation and ecological tipping points among the poor within countries (medium confidence).

Evidence on the kinds of enabling environment required paints a complex picture. The assessment highlights the interaction of different capital assets within the broader context of key enablers in shaping the overall enabling environment for adaptation, which itself is highly context dependent. In this regard, countries present different starting points for adaptation, with some requiring, for example, more of an emphasis on institutional capacity building; others requiring transformation to the broader legal and political conditions. Capitals are not necessarily substitutable but rather act as an assemblage in shaping both perceptions of climate risk and the necessity and appropriateness of actions. At the same time there isrobust evidencethat livelihoods that depend strongly on natural capital for both subsistence and as a source of income are particularly sensitive to climate risks; and are where perhaps adaptive actions are most urgently needed, even with smaller rises in temperature under the most optimistic scenarios. This applies to both the Global South and the Global North. Investments in any form of capital asset to support adaptation need to be mindful of reinforcing existing inequalities and introducing new ones, particularly if transformation takes place. This also underscores the importance of inclusive, polycentric governance in ensuring the voices of all groups are heard and that wide-ranging knowledge types are incorporated in decision making, nevertheless recognising that trade-offs are inevitable.

The chapter also highlights and provides quantitative evidence that adaptation strategies need to go beyond the idea of adapting to warming levels only. Adaptation strategies have to reduce the adaptation gap and therewith reduce human vulnerability independent of a specific climatic hazard. It has been shown that adaptation strategies that explicitly address poverty and inequities, and also consider rights-based approaches can generate co-benefits for resilience building of most vulnerable groups and for sustainable development.

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