Over 420 million ha of forest were lost to deforestation from 1990 to 2020; more than 90% of that loss took place in tropical areas (high confidence), threatening biodiversity, environmental services, livelihoods of forest communities and resilience to climate shocks (high confidence1 ). Forty-five percent of the world’s forested areas are in the tropics, and they are among the most important regulators of regional and global climate, natural carbon sinks and the most significant repositories of terrestrial biomass. They are of immeasurable value to biodiversity, ecosystem services, social and cultural identities, livelihoods, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. {CCP7.2.1; CCP7.2.2; Box CCP7.2; Table CCP7.2 }

Climate change affects tropical forests through warming and increased occurrence of extreme events such as droughts and heatwaves, as well as more frequent fires, which increase tree mortality and reduce tree growth, limiting the ability of forests to regenerate (high confidence). Climate change is altering the structure and species composition of tropical tree communities (high confidence), including transitions from moist to drier forest in regions such as the Amazon (high confidence), and movement of species from lower to higher elevations (high confidence). Despite CO2 fertilisation, ongoing climate change has weakened the carbon sink potential of tropical forests in Amazonia and, to a lesser extent, in Africa and Asia (medium confidence). {CCP7.2.3; CCP7.3 }

Large-scale tropical deforestation affects regional to continental scale climates with significant impacts on forest resilience (high confidence). Deforestation generally reduces rainfall and enhances temperatures, with effects depending on scales (high confidence), while often increasing surface runoff (medium confidence). Continued deforestation-driven landscape drying and fragmentation will aggravate fire risk and reduce forest resilience, leading to degradation or savannisation of the tropical forest biomes, in particular in combination with climate change (high confidence). {CCP7.3.6}

Implementing sustainable management strategies can improve the ability of tropical forest ecosystems to adapt to climate change (high confidence) , and the benefits of adaptation interventions often outweigh the costs (medium confidence). Adaptation of tropical forests to climate change provides an opportunity for tropical countries to develop forest policies that create incentives for environmental services such as carbon storage and biodiversity refugia. Forest restoration using a diverse mix of native species can help rebuild the climate resilience of tropical forests, but is best implemented alongside other sustainable forest management strategies and adaptation interventions (high confidenc e). {CCP7.5; Box CCP7.1 }

Community-based adaptation, built on Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IK and LK) over centuries or millennia, is often identified as an effective adaptation strategy to climate change (high confidence). For successful adaptation of tropical forest communities, it is vital to consider IK and LK in addition to modern scientific approaches, together with consideration of non-climatic vulnerabilities (e.g., poverty, gender inequality and power asymmetries) (high confidence). Climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity have a historical and geopolitical context, conditioned by value systems and development models. Transformative and sustainable practices are required for effective management of tropical forests (high confidence). {CCP7.4; Box CCP7.1 }

Building resilience of tropical forests to climate change relies on adaptation in combination with reduction of direct and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation (high confidence). Tropical deforestation is largely driven by agriculture, both from subsistence farming and industrial agriculture (e.g., oil palm, timber plantations, soybeans, livestock) (high confidence). While poverty and population growth combined with poor governance often fuel subsistence agriculture (high confidence), industrial agriculture is often driven by international market forces for commodities and large-scale land acquisitions (high confidence). {CCP7.2.3}

Governance responses to addressing the direct and underlying drivers of deforestation have been inadequate to reduce pressures, yet the urgency of tackling drivers of forest loss and degradation is increasing as climate impacts on forests and ecosystems increase (high confidence). Transformative levers towards improving environmental governance and resilience of tropical forests include: incentivising and building capacity for environmental responsibility and discontinuing harmful subsidies and disincentives; reforming segmented decision-making to promote integration across sectors and jurisdictions; pursuing pre-emptive and precautionary actions; managing for resilient social and ecological systems in the face of uncertainty and complexity; strengthening environmental laws and policies and their implementation; acknowledging land tenure and rights; and inclusive stakeholder participation (medium confidence). {CCP7.6}

Climate change is already impacting tropical forests around the world, including through distributional shifts of forest biomes, changes in species composition, biomass, pests and diseases, and increases in forest fires (high confidence). These impacts are often compounded by non-climatic factors such as conversion of land for other uses, burning to clear land, mining, and road and infrastructure development. It is notable that, despite societal awareness and financial opportunities to restore forests (Brancalion and Chazdon, 2017), tropical forests are increasingly threatened. For instance, the conversion of tropical forests to large-scale agricultural production (mainly soybeans, oil palm, maize, cotton, livestock), is among the strongest drivers of species richness decline of both flora and fauna, thereby impacting the adaptation opportunities of ecosystems and local people to climate change (IPBES, 2018). Reducing direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and forest degradation is therefore critical to building, maintaining or enhancing the resilience of tropical forests against climate and non-climate drivers alike (high confidence).

With climate change-related drivers becoming increasingly important in the future, changes to tropical forests will most likely 2 be aggravated overall, although some tropical forests may temporarily benefit, physiologically, from higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. To the degree to which forests are affected by climate change and other drivers, their resilience against these stressors is diminishing leading to a reduction in the regulating, supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services they provide (Alroy, 2017; Cadman et al., 2017; Pörtner et al., 2021) (Chapter 2) (high confidence). This, in turn, is affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people who depend on forests and their products, in particular forest dwelling communities, but also, via the teleconnections between forests and surrounding areas of influence, in socio-ecological systems outside the forests themselves.

While strong mitigation efforts are fundamental to minimising future climate impacts on forests, forest management can be improved in many places in support of enhancing the resilience of tropical forests, often with significant co-benefits for carbon storage, biodiversity, food security and ecosystem services (high confidence). Sustainable management practices allow forests to be utilised, frequently with equally high or even higher productivity levels, while keeping their core functions intact. While there are numerous approaches to managing forests and forest landscapes sustainably, an element that appears to be critical is property rights and tenure arrangements allowing stewards of the land, including Indigenous Peoples, securing long-term access and utilisation of forest resources (medium confidence) (Rahman and Alam, 2016; Naughton-Treves, 2014).

Figure CCP7.1 illustrates the interconnections of climate risks and non-climate drivers facing tropical forests. On the one hand, the rates and extent of deforestation and forest degradation result in loss of ecosystem services, biodiversity and human well-being and enhance the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to the impacts of climate change. On the other, forest protection and sustainable forest management result in higher resilience of the ecosystem against climate impacts. This framing illustrates both the complexity and scale of the challenge and provides opportunities to reduce impacts at different scales by eliminating the underlying drivers, both climate and non-climate related, through policies and measures at global, national and subnational levels, involving state and non-state actors alike.

Building on what has been presented in IPCC AR5, SR15 and SRCCL, Section CCP7.2 first briefly describes the types and extent of tropical forest ecosystems, and then looks at current rates and drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. Section CCP7.3 presents current and projected climate change impacts on tropical trees and forests, focusing primarily on drought, heat and fires, looking from physiological responses to risks, projected climate change impact and forest resilience. Section CCP7.4 addresses the impacts of climate change and tropical forest destruction on the livelihoods and well-being of communities and peoples living in or being strongly dependent upon tropical forests. This section includes a Box on Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and community-based adaptation. Section CCP7.5 assesses adaptation options for the sustainable management of tropical forests drawing upon the protection, management and restoration framework, and includes a Box on the connection between sustainable forest management and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Section CCP7.6, finally, assesses opportunities and challenges of tropical forest governance to maintain and enhance resilience against climate change impacts on forests.

In the most recent Global Ecological Zones map produced by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the year 2010, tropical vegetation has been defined as encompassing regions which are frost-free during all months in the year (FAO, 2012). Further, the tropical vegetation has been sub-classified into tropical rainforest, tropical moist forest, tropical dry forest, tropical shrubland, tropical desert and tropical mountain systems based on climate in combination with vegetation physiognomy and orographic zone (Table SMCCP7.1). IPCC has used the basic FAO classification in its National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Guidelines (IPCC, 2019a).

Since the FAO ecological zones represent potential biome extents, the present area under forest is assessed using the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover data set (ESA, 2017). The ESA data set provides a direct mapping to IPCC land categories (e.g., ‘forest’), allowing for standardised and consistent reporting of existing forest and forest gain/loss in each ecological zone. The most extensive tropical ecological zone is the tropical rainforest (1459 Mha or about 25% of all tropical ecological zones), followed by tropical desert (which is not further considered here), tropical moist forest, tropical shrubland, tropical dry forest and tropical mountain system (Table CCP7.1; Figure CCP7.2). Mangroves are not explicitly considered in the FAO classification. Tropical rainforest occurs largely in South America, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia, and is the most intact tropical forest biome (Table CCP7.1). Significant portions of tropical moist forest, which abut tropical rainforest in many regions but experience a longer dry season, have been lost in most regions (Table CCP7.2). Tropical moist forest typically grades into the highly threatened tropical dry forest ecological zone, of which only about a third exists under forest cover at present. Only about 44% of tropical mountain systems, which occur approximately above 1000 m above mean sea level, are presently under forest cover. While the FAO classification provides the potential tropical ecological zones (roughly, ‘vegetation types’), there are large differences in the extents of global tropical forest biomes which are still remaining as reported by different sources (Sayre et al., 2020; Ocón et al., 2021). These differences result from differences in biome definition, data source, the definition of ‘forest’, and the method used for classifying remotely sensed data. For example, the reported global area of tropical dry forests ranges from 105 to 645 Mha (Pan et al., 2013; Bastin et al., 2017; Ocón et al., 2021).

Table CCP7.1 | Areas in tropical ecological zones as defined by the FAO (FAO, 2012). 1Existing forest represents areas classified as ‘forest’ in the 2020 ESA Land Cover CCI Product (ESA, 2017). All units are in million hectares, except where indicated.

Table CCP7.2 | Trends in net tropical forest loss, reforestation and expansion rates (1000 ha yr −1) from 2010–2015 and 2015–2020 periods by regions.

While early dynamic global vegetation models predicted biome shifts and contractions of tropical forests, more recent efforts have focused on biome changes at more regional scales, or on functional aspects of tropical forests, such as plant physiological and phenological changes, drought-related mortality, population dynamics, interspecies interactions and community responses, ecohydrology, risk of fire and related impacts, soil nutrient and microbe–plant interactions. Climate change is expected to increase temperatures across the tropics, with attendant variability in rainfall, and more extreme events such as intense storms, droughts and wildfires (Zelazowski et al., 2011; Malhi et al., 2014; Brando et al., 2019). This could be expected to have structural and functional impacts on tropical forest biomes (Malhi et al., 2014; Adams et al., 2017). This section looks at responses of tropical trees and forests to current and future climate-change related pressures, focusing on physiological responses including growth, mortality and regeneration, fire risk and ecological vulnerability, as well as on climate effects of tropical forest loss.

Around 800 million people live in or in the immediate vicinity of tropical forests (Keenan, 2015). Short-term impacts of climate change on biodiversity will exacerbate the inequalities affecting those livelihoods which heavily rely on forests (Pörtner et al., 2021).

Livelihoods, gender, land-use change and dependency on forest resources for food, fuel, housing and other needs have been identified as key elements of vulnerability in Indigenous Peoples and rural communities in Africa and South America (high confidence) (Nkem et al., 2013; Field et al., 2014; Newton et al., 2016; Pearse, 2017; IPBES, 2018; Pörtner et al., 2021). Socioeconomic vulnerability varies depending on the level of dependency of forest food consumption (Rowland et al., 2017), livelihood strategies and settlement patterns. In Cameroon (Nkem et al., 2013), nomadic hunter-gatherers and sedentary communities showed differences in their vulnerability, driven by their preferences in forest settlement locations for farming, hunting, fishing, gathering, trapping and maintaining livestock.

Increasing temperatures, extreme climatic events, drought and fire will affect the proportion and frequency of forest resources availability. In communities of tropical America, Asia and Africa, social vulnerability factors identified include: deforestation pressures for agriculture expansion to cope with climate-induced food shortages, conflicts over access to forest land as a result of uncontrolled fire induced by higher drought frequency and severity, the availability of wild game, the work capacity, and the time consumed in work and gender-based differences (Blaser et al, 2011; Bele et al., 2013; IPCC, 2014). Although the size and quality of harvest in crops and non-timber forest products (NTFPs) will be affected, the literature reports the use of NTFPs, hunting and fishing is less sensitive to climate change, and relevant for household incomes (Bele et al., 2013; Djoudi et al., 2013; Newton et al., 2016; Onyekuru and Marchant, 2016). Data from tropical forests document the contribution of NTFPs to local livelihoods (Issaka, 2018), with well-established NTFPs such as Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa), rattan (Calamus and Daemonorops species), rubber (Hevea species) and açai (Euterpe oleracea) showing promise for sustainable harvesting strategies which could reduce socioeconomic vulnerability (Blaser et al., 2021).

The decrease of tropical forest area due to land-use change will put additional pressures, threatening livelihood practices, traditional land arrangements and customary rights of forest-dependent communities, and impacting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of Climate Action and Life on Land (Djoudi and Brockhaus, 2011; Tiani et al., 2015; Hurlbert et al., 2019). Globalised trade relations, agricultural expansion, illegal activities and violent conflicts have been identified as important non-climatic drivers of forest degradation (high confidence) (Barr and Sayer, 2012; Rist et al., 2012; Shanley et al., 2012; Ruiz-Mallén et al., 2017; IPBES, 2018; IPBES et al., 2018). Globally, about 70% of tropical forest areas occur outside protected areas. In Latin America and the Caribbean, Indigenous Peoples and local communities have predominant ownership of tropical forest lands, while in West and Central Africa and Asia, forested areas are largely state-owned with exacerbating problems of governance, inequity and conflict with customary land tenure systems (Blaser et al., , 2011).

Further research by experts and local stakeholders and Indigenous Peoples is required to design more accurate and comprehensive indicators (Huong et al., 2019). Solid evidence shows important knowledge and experiences that Indigenous Peoples and local communities contribute to disaster risk reduction and management (IPBES, 2018 a). Recognising the land rights of Indigenous Peoples is among the most cost-effective actions to address climate and biodiversity risks according to FAO and FILAC (2021). In Indigenous Peoples’ forest lands in the Amazon basin, deforestation rates are up to 50% lower than in other forested areas (Ding et al., 2016), and Indigenous management is correlated with reduced carbon emissions (Blackman and Veit, 2018). Indigenous authors and local authors have pointed out the role of traditional systems of governance, knowledge and belief systems in the resilience of Indigenous Peoples and rural communities in the Amazonian and Andean regions, by regulating seed access and the conservation of agrobiodiversity and tropical forest (Camico et al., 2021; Mustonen et al., 2021). In the Philippines, the traditional land use system Muyong promotes sustainable agroforestry management based on customary land laws (Camacho et al., 2016). Participation of local stakeholders and the inclusion of a gender perspective contribute to prioritising resource allocation and the development of effective legal frameworks for adaptation (Shah et al., 2013; Tiani et al., 2015; Ihalainen et al., 2017; Collantes et al., 2018). There is a need to combine quantitative and qualitative methods, and increase research efforts to integrated approaches; including multi-scalar and interdisciplinary assessments of vulnerability (Djoudi et al., 2013; Guidi et al., 2018; FAO and CIFOR, 2019).

Ecological adaptation and other spontaneous responses to climate change are discussed in Settele et al. (2015) and [AR6 WGII_Chapter 2] Here we consider the role of humans in managing the adaptation of tropical forests to climate change. The focus is on human-assisted adaptation options that help to maintain tropical forest ecosystems and not on the use of forests to supply provisioning services, such as timber, which is covered in [AR6 WGII_Chapter 5]. Forest management and agroforestry are discussed, but only with regard to their role in contributing to the adaptation of tropical ecosystems now and in the future. Maintaining ecosystems has a range of co-benefits for humans, including through ‘ecosystem-based adaptation’. These are explored in [Box 1.3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2, Box CCP7.2 ]. Although there are a number of potentially valuable response options, it is clear that certain hazards, such as heatwaves, may be impossible to manage at the forest community level and require long-term interventions at the landscape scale. Similarly, it will be difficult for forest managers to adapt to indirect climate-related ecosystem disturbances such as loss of pollination agents, invasive species or pest and diseases outbreaks (Allen et al., 2010; Anderegg et al., 2020). Equally important in adapting to increased pressure from climate change are efforts to minimise disturbance from non-climatic stress factors (e.g., overharvesting, pollution and land use change; Malhi et al., 2014; Keenan, 2015; Barlow et al., 2016; Pörtner et al., 2021). Under some emissions scenarios, projected climate change impacts are of such severity that no adaptation measure is likely to protect natural forest systems; for example, with warming of 4°C, some tropical forests are at risk of die-back from high temperature (Malhi et al., 2014; Settele et al., 2015; Trumbore et al., 2015).

Actions to protect the extent or reduce the disturbance pressure on forest systems contribute to the capacity of these systems to respond to climate change (increasing resistance and resilience) (high confidence) (Millar et al., 2007; Schmitz et al., 2015; Settele et al., 2015; Sakschewski et al., 2016; Hisano et al., 2018). Furthermore, if implemented sufficiently well, efforts to manage and restore forests also improve the capacity of forest systems to respond to future climate stressors (increasing resilience and responsiveness). Table CCP7.3 gives an overview of adaptation strategies for tropical forests within the framework of protect, manage, restore (Sayer et al., 2003; Pörtner et al., 2021). In assessing the available adaptation options, it can be useful to distinguish between actions focused on protecting forest extent, managing biodiversity, managing ecosystem function or restoring ecosystem services (Seppälä, 2009), Figure CCP7.5 and Table CCP7.4 give a detailed assessment of the major adaptation options in this context. Beyond these specific interventions, and in several cases underpinning them, there is an increasing awareness that effective management and adaptation of tropical forests requires an appreciation of IK, LK and CBA for implementation to be meaningful; these approaches are assessed in [Box CCP7.1 ]

Deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests has grown in prominence as priorities for environmental governance in the face of climate change, given the large share of forest and land use GHG emissions in the national profiles of tropical forest countries (high confidence) (Butt et al., 2015; IPCC, 2019b). This is reflected in Parties’ Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement (UNFCCC, 2021). Significant investments in REDD+ readiness, improved forest monitoring, assessments of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation and related policy responses, and stakeholder engagement have occurred over the past decade in countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean (Hein et al., 2018; UN-REDD Programme, 2018; World Bank, 2018). Fifty-three percent of countries use the highest-quality remote sensing data for forest monitoring and reporting, covering 93% of forest cover (Nesha et al., 2021). However, improved monitoring has not yet translated into forest governance effectiveness. Since the New York Declaration on Forests was endorsed in 2014, average annual humid tropical primary forest loss has accelerated by 44% (NYDF, 2019). Policy responses towards conservation and ecosystem resilience are found to be insufficient to stem the direct and indirect drivers of nature deterioration (high confidence) (IPBES, 2019). For governance measures to be effective, it is necessary to alter the direct and underlying drivers that are leading to forest destruction or impeding the implementation of sustainable forest management practices and actions to restore degraded forests (high confidence) (Section CCP7.2.3; Section CCP7.5; UNFCCC, 2013).

Private sector commitments to reduce deforestation impacts in their commodity supply chains are growing, but evidence of impact is slim and inconclusive (Garrett et al., 2019; NYDF, 2019). Half of the biodiversity loss associated with consumption in developed economies occurs outside their territorial boundaries (Wilting et al., 2017), and trends in international trade in land-based production systems are increasing, with greatest impacts on tropical forests (Nyström et al., 2019; Hoang and Kanemoto, 2021). In addition, in some cases the impacts of financialisation (e.g., correlation of commodity prices with stock market dynamics rather than pure demand) are found to be larger than those related to timber and agricultural commodity production dynamics (Girardi, 2015; Ouyang and Zhang, 2020; cross-reference to Chapter 5.13). Such factors present challenges for governance and policy responses.

The complexity of tackling drivers of forest loss and degradation will increase as climate impacts on forests and ecosystems intensify in the context of incomplete information and limited understanding of risks (Helbing, 2013; Hughes et al., 2013; Springmann et al., 2018; Tu et al., 2019), necessitating novel approaches to forest governance for resilience (Keenan, 2015; Spathelf et al., 2018). Therefore, governance, defined as efforts that seek to influence the relationship between existing social processes and governance arrangements by using regulatory processes, mechanisms and organisations (Agrawal et al., 2018), is a crucial process to convene stakeholders for decisions (FAO, 2018a).

This section describes seven levers that support transformative environmental governance towards resilience of tropical forests by tackling the underlying indirect drivers, offering policy solutions and governance challenges and opportunities. The first five build on IPBES (2019), whereas the remaining two are drawn from the governance literature as highly relevant variables specific to the tropical forest context owing to their prominence in the international frameworks developed over the past 10 years (Table CCP7.5). Monitoring and finance are embedded in multiple levers. The levers include:

1. Developing incentives and increased capacity for environmental responsibility (particularly in relation to global targets such as the SDGs, Aichi Biodiversity Targets and the Paris Agreement) and discontinuing harmful subsidies and disincentives;
2. Reforming sectoral and segmented decision-making to promote integration across sectors and jurisdictions to mainstream environmental objectives across institutions, within and among all relevant sectors;
3. Pursuing pre-emptive and precautionary actions in regulatory and management institutions and businesses to avoid, mitigate and remedy the deterioration of nature and monitor outcomes;
4. Managing for resilient social and ecological systems in the face of uncertainty and complexity;
5. Strengthening environmental laws and policies and their implementation, and the rule of law more generally (Pörtner et al., 2021);
6. Acknowledging land tenure and rights to recognise the need of bringing human rights considerations into the climate change regime; and
7. Enhancing inclusive stakeholder participation to ensure effective, efficient and equitable outcomes (Pasgaard et al., 2016).

While the first five levers are relevant to environmental governance more broadly, the exploration of these levers in Table CCP7.5 is more specific to governance for forest resilience, drawing upon insights related to each transformation lever. Next to the governance solutions being implemented currently, indications of future challenges/opportunities related to resilience in tropical forests are explored based on examples from the recent literature.

Table CCP7.5 | Levers of transformative change to tackle the underlying indirect drivers of forest deterioration for resilience.

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