Figure 5.7 — Special Report on Climate Change and Land

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Figure 5.7

Implications of climate change by 2050 on land-use, selected agricultural commodity prices, and the population at risk of hunger based on AgMIP Global Economic Model analysis.(A) Projected % change in land-use by 2050 by land type (cropland, grassland, and forest) and SSP. (B) Projected % changes in average world prices by 2050 for cereals (rice, wheat, and coarse grains) and animal sourced foods (ruminant meat, monogastric, and dairy) by SSP. (C)Percentage change by 2050 in the global population at risk of hunger by SSP. (Hasegawa et al. 2018).

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Summary for Policymakers

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SPM

Chapter TS

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Chapter A-I

Chapter A-II

Chapter A-III

Chapter A-IV

Chapter A-V

Summary for Policymakers

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1Introduction
APeople, land and climate in a warming world
BAdaptation and mitigation response options
CEnabling response options
DAction in the near-term
+Acknowledgements
+Citation
+SPM in UN Languages

Technical Summary

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Framing and Context

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ESExecutive Summary
1.1Introduction and scope of the report
- 1.1.1Objectives and scope of the assessment
- 1.1.2Status and dynamics of the (global) land system
  - 1.1.2.11.1.2.1 Land ecosystems and climate change
  - 1.1.2.2Current patterns of land use and land cover
  - 1.1.2.3Past and ongoing trends
1.2Key challenges related to land use change
- 1.2.1Land system change, land degradation, desertification and food security
  - 1.2.1.1Future trends in the global land system
  - 1.2.1.2Land degradation
  - 1.2.1.3 Desertification
  - 1.2.1.4Food security, food systems and linkages to land-based ecosystems
  - 1.2.1.5Challenges arising from land governance
- 1.2.2Progress in dealing with uncertainties in assessing land processes in the climate system
1.3Response options to the key challenges
1.4Enabling the response
- 1.4.1Governance to enable the response
- 1.4.2Gender agency as a critical factor in climate and land sustainability outcomes
- 1.4.3Policy instruments
  - 1.4.3.1Legal and regulatory instruments
  - 1.4.3.2Economic and financial instruments
  - 1.4.3.3Rights-based instruments and customary norms
  - 1.4.3.4Social and cultural norms
1.5The interdisciplinary nature of the SRCCL

Land–Climate interactions

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ESExecutive Summary
2.1Introduction: Land–climate interactions
- 2.1.1Recap of previous IPCC and other relevant reports as baselines
- 2.1.2Introduction to the chapter structure
2.2The effect of climate variability and change on land
2.3Greenhouse gas fluxes between land and atmosphere
- 2.3.1Carbon dioxide
- 2.3.2Methane
  - 2.3.2.1Atmospheric trends
  - 2.3.2.2Land use effects
- 2.3.3Nitrous oxide
  - 2.3.3.1Atmospheric trends
  - 2.3.3.2 Land use effects
2.4Emissions and impacts of short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) from land
2.5Land impacts on climate and weather through biophysical and GHG effects
2.6 Climate consequences of response options
- 2.6.1Climate impacts of individual response options
  - 2.6.1.1Land management in agriculture
  - 2.6.1.2Land management in forests
  - 2.6.1.3Land management of soils
  - 2.6.1.4Land management in other ecosystems
  - 2.6.1.5Bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
  - 2.6.1.6Enhanced weathering
  - 2.6.1.7Demand management in the food sector (diet change, waste reduction)
- 2.6.2Integrated pathways for climate change mitigation
- 2.6.3The contribution of response options to the Paris Agreement
2.7Plant and soil processes underlying land–climate interactions

Desertification

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ESExecutive Summary
3.1The nature of desertification
3.2Observations of desertification
- 3.2.1Status and trends of desertification
  - 3.2.1.1Global scale
  - 3.2.1.2Regional scale
- 3.2.2Attribution of desertification
3.3Desertification feedbacks to climate
- 3.3.1Sand and dust aerosols
  - 3.3.1.1Off-site feedbacks
- 3.3.2Changes in surface albedo
- 3.3.3Changes in vegetation and greenhouse gas fluxes
3.4Desertification impacts on natural and socio-economic systems under climate change
- 3.4.1Impacts on natural and managed ecosystems
  - 3.4.1.1Impacts on ecosystems and their services in drylands
  - 3.4.1.2Impacts on biodiversity: Plant and wildlife
- 3.4.2Impacts on socio-economic systems
  - 3.4.2.1Impacts on poverty
  - 3.4.2.2Impacts on food and nutritional insecurity
  - 3.4.2.3Impacts on human health through dust storms
  - 3.4.2.4Impacts on gender equality
  - 3.4.2.5Impacts on water scarcity and use
  - 3.4.2.6Impacts on energy infrastructure through dust storms
  - 3.4.2.7Impacts on transport infrastructure through dust storms and sand movement
  - 3.4.2.8Impacts on conflicts
  - 3.4.2.9Impacts on migration
  - 3.4.2.10Impacts on pastoral communities
3.5Future projections
- 3.5.1Future projections of desertification
  - 3.5.1.1Future vulnerability and risk of desertification
- 3.5.2Future projections of impacts
3.6Responses to desertification under climate change
3.7Hotspots and case studies
- 3.7.1Climate change and soil erosion
- 3.7.2Green walls and green dams
- 3.7.3Invasive plant species
  - 3.7.3.1Introduction
  - 3.7.3.2Ethiopia
  - 3.7.3.3Mexico
  - 3.7.3.4United States of America
  - 3.7.3.5Pakistan
- 3.7.4Oases in hyper-arid areas in the Arabian Peninsula and northern Africa
- 3.7.5Integrated watershed management
  - 3.7.5.1Jordan
  - 3.7.5.2India
  - 3.7.5.3Limpopo River Basin
3.8Knowledge gaps and key uncertainties

Land Degradation

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ESExecutive Summary
4.1Introduction
4.2Land degradation in the context of climate change
- 4.2.1Processes of land degradation
  - 4.2.1.1Types of land degradation processes
  - 4.2.1.2Land degradation processes and climate change
- 4.2.2Drivers of land degradation
- 4.2.3Attribution in the case of land degradation
  - 4.2.3.1Direct linkages with climate change
  - 4.2.3.2Indirect and complex linkages with climate change
- 4.2.4Approaches to assessing land degradation
4.3Status and current trends of land degradation
- 4.3.1Land degradation
- 4.3.2Forest degradation
4.4Projections of land degradation in a changing climate
- 4.4.1Direct impacts on land degradation
- 4.4.2Indirect impacts on land degradation
4.5Impacts of bioenergy and technologies for CO2 removal (CDR) on land degradation
4.6Impacts of land degradation on climate
- 4.6.1Impact on greenhouse gases (GHGs)
- 4.6.2Physical impacts
4.7Impacts of climate-related land degradation on poverty and livelihoods
4.84.8 Addressing land degradation in the context of climate change
4.9Case studies
- 4.9.1Urban green infrastructure
- 4.9.2Perennial grains and soil organic carbon (SOC)
- 4.9.3Reversing land degradation through reforestation
  - 4.9.3.1South Korea case study on reforestation success
  - 4.9.3.2China case study on reforestation success
- 4.9.4Degradation and management of peat soils
- 4.9.5Biochar
  - 4.9.5.1Role of biochar in climate change mitigation
  - 4.9.5.2Role of biochar in management of land degradation
- 4.9.6Management of land degradation induced by tropical cyclones
  - 4.9.6.1Management of coastal wetlands
- 4.9.7Saltwater intrusion
- 4.9.8Avoiding coastal maladaptation
4.10Knowledge gaps and key uncertainties

Food Security

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ESExecutive Summary
5.1Framing and context
5.2Impacts of climate change on food systems
- 5.2.1Climate drivers important to food security
  - 5.2.1.1Short-lived climate pollutants
- 5.2.2Climate change impacts on food availability
  - 5.2.2.1Impacts on crop production
  - 5.2.2.2Impacts on livestock production systems
  - 5.2.2.3Impacts on pests and diseases
  - 5.2.2.4Impacts on pollinators
  - 5.2.2.5Impacts on aquaculture
  - 5.2.2.6Impacts on smallholder farming systems
- 5.2.3Climate change impacts on access
  - 5.2.3.1Impacts on prices and risk of hunger
  - 5.2.3.2Impacts on land use
- 5.2.4Climate change impacts on food utilisation
  - 5.2.4.1Impacts on food safety and human health
  - 5.2.4.2Impacts on food quality
- 5.2.5Climate change impacts on food stability
  - 5.2.5.1Impacts of extreme events
  - 5.2.5.2Food aid
5.3Adaptation options, challenges and opportunities
- 5.3.1Challenges and opportunities
- 5.3.2Adaptation framing and key concepts
  - 5.3.2.1Autonomous, incremental, and transformational adaptation
  - 5.3.2.2Risk management
  - 5.3.2.3Role of agroecology and diversification
  - 5.3.2.4Role of cultural values
- 5.3.3Supply-side adaptation
  - 5.3.3.1Crop production
  - 5.3.3.2Livestock production systems
  - 5.3.3.3Aquaculture, fisheries, and agriculture interactions
  - 5.3.3.4Transport and storage
  - 5.3.3.5Trade and processing
- 5.3.4Demand-side adaptation
- 5.3.5Institutional measures
  - 5.3.5.1Global initiatives
  - 5.3.5.2National policies
  - 5.3.5.3Community-based adaptation
- 5.3.6Tools and finance
  - 5.3.6.1Early warning systems
  - 5.3.6.2Financial resources
5.4Impacts of food systems on climate change
5.5Mitigation options, challenges and opportunities
- 5.5.1Supply-side mitigation options
  - 5.5.1.1Greenhouse gas mitigation in croplands and soils
  - 5.5.1.2Greenhouse gas mitigation in livestock systems
  - 5.5.1.3Greenhouse gas mitigation in agroforestry
  - 5.5.1.4Integrated approaches to crop and livestock mitigation
  - 5.5.1.5Greenhouse gas mitigation in aquaculture
  - 5.5.1.6Cellular agriculture
- 5.5.2Demand-side mitigation options
  - 5.5.2.1Mitigation potential of different diets
  - 5.5.2.2Role of dietary preferences
  - 5.5.2.3Uncertainties in demand-side mitigation potential
  - 5.5.2.4Insect-based diets
  - 5.5.2.5Food loss and waste, food security, and land use
  - 5.5.2.6Shortening supply chains
5.6Mitigation, adaptation, food security and land use: Synergies, trade-offs and co-benefits
- 5.6.1Land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and bioenergy
- 5.6.2Mitigation, food prices, and food security
- 5.6.3Environmental and health effects of adopting healthy and sustainable diets
  - 5.6.3.1Can dietary shifts provide significant benefits?
- 5.6.4Sustainable integrated agricultural systems
  - 5.6.4.1Agroecology
  - 5.6.4.2Climate-smart agriculture
  - 5.6.4.3Conservation agriculture
  - 5.6.4.4Sustainable intensification
- 5.6.5Role of urban agriculture
- 5.6.6Links to the Sustainable Development Goals
5.7Enabling conditions and knowledge gaps
- 5.7.1Enabling policy environments
  - 5.7.1.1Agriculture and trade policy
  - 5.7.1.2Scope for expanded policies
  - 5.7.1.3Health-related policies and cost savings
  - 5.7.1.4Multiple policy pathways
- 5.7.2Enablers for changing markets and trade
  - 5.7.2.1Capital markets
  - 5.7.2.2Insurance and re-insurance
- 5.7.3Just Transitions to sustainability
- 5.7.4Mobilising knowledge
  - 5.7.4.1Indigenous and local knowledge
  - 5.7.4.2 Citizen science
  - 5.7.4.3Capacity building and education
- 5.7.5Knowledge gaps and key research areas
  - 5.7.5.1Impacts and adaptation
  - 5.7.5.2Emissions and mitigation
  - 5.7.5.3Synergies and trade-offs
5.8Future challenges to food security
- 5.8.1Food price spikes
- 5.8.2Migration and conflict
  - 5.8.2.1Migration
  - 5.8.2.2Conflict
SMSupplementary Material

Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options

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ESExecutive Summary
6.1Introduction
6.2Response options, co-benefits and adverse side effects across the land challenges
6.3Potentials for addressing the land challenges
6.4 Managing interactions and interlinkages
SMSupplementary Material

Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development

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ESExecutive summary
7.1Introduction and relation to other chapters
7.2Climate-related risks for land-based human systems and ecosystems
- 7.2.1Assessing risk
- 7.2.2Risks to land systems arising from climate change
  - 7.2.2.1Crop yield in low latitudes
  - 7.2.2.2Food supply instability
  - 7.2.2.3Soil erosion
  - 7.2.2.4Dryland water scarcity
  - 7.2.2.5Vegetation degradation
  - 7.2.2.6Fire damage
  - 7.2.2.7Permafrost
  - 7.2.2.8Risks of desertification, land degradation and food insecurity under different Future Development Pathways
- 7.2.3Risks arising from responses to climate change
  - 7.2.3.1Risk associated with land-based adaptation
  - 7.2.3.2Risk associated with land-based mitigation
- 7.2.4Risks arising from hazard, exposure and vulnerability
7.3Consequences of climate – land change for human well-being and sustainable development
7.4Policy instruments for land and climate
7.5 Decision-making for climate change and land
- 7.5.1Formal and informal decision-making
  - 7.5.1.1Formal Decision Making
  - 7.5.1.2Informal decision-making
- 7.5.2 Decision-making, timing, risk, and uncertainty
  - 7.5.2.1Problem structuring
  - 7.5.2.2Decision-making tools
  - 7.5.2.3Cost and timing of action
- 7.5.3Best practices of decision-making toward sustainable land management (SLM)
- 7.5.4Adaptive management
- 7.5.5Performance indicators
- 7.5.6Maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs
7.6Governance: Governing the land–climate interface
7.7 Key uncertainties and knowledge gaps
SMSupplementary Material

Annex-I Glossary

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Annex-II Acronyms

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Annex-III Contributors

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Annex-IV Reviewers

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Annex-V Index

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