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Figure 3.17c
(c) one year after treatment. Source: Stefan Strohmeier.
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Foreword
Preface
Headline Statements
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SPM
Chapter TS
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter A-I
Chapter A-II
Chapter A-III
Chapter A-IV
Chapter A-V
Summary for Policymakers
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1
Introduction
A
People, land and climate in a warming world
B
Adaptation and mitigation response options
C
Enabling response options
D
Action in the near-term
+
Acknowledgements
+
Citation
+
SPM in UN Languages
Technical Summary
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Framing and Context
View chapter
ES
Executive Summary
1.1
Introduction and scope of the report
1.1.1
Objectives and scope of the assessment
1.1.2
Status and dynamics of the (global) land system
1.1.2.1
1.1.2.1 Land ecosystems and climate change
1.1.2.2
Current patterns of land use and land cover
1.1.2.3
Past and ongoing trends
1.2
Key challenges related to land use change
1.2.1
Land system change, land degradation, desertification and food security
1.2.1.1
Future trends in the global land system
1.2.1.2
Land degradation
1.2.1.3
Desertification
1.2.1.4
Food security, food systems and linkages to land-based ecosystems
1.2.1.5
Challenges arising from land governance
1.2.2
Progress in dealing with uncertainties in assessing land processes in the climate system
1.2.2.1
Concepts related to risk, uncertainty and confidence
1.2.2.2
Nature and scope of uncertainties related to land use
1.2.2.3
Uncertainties in decision-making
1.3
Response options to the key challenges
1.3.1
Targeted decarbonisation relying on large land-area need
1.3.2
Land management
1.3.2.1
Agricultural, forest and soil management
1.3.3
Value chain management
1.3.3.1
Supply management
1.3.3.2
Demand management
1.3.4
Risk management
1.3.5
Economics of land-based mitigation pathways: Costs versus benefits of early action under uncertainty
1.3.6
Adaptation measures and scope for co-benefits with mitigation
1.4
Enabling the response
1.4.1
Governance to enable the response
1.4.2
Gender agency as a critical factor in climate and land sustainability outcomes
1.4.3
Policy instruments
1.4.3.1
Legal and regulatory instruments
1.4.3.2
Economic and financial instruments
1.4.3.3
Rights-based instruments and customary norms
1.4.3.4
Social and cultural norms
1.5
The interdisciplinary nature of the SRCCL
Land–Climate interactions
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Executive Summary
2.1
Introduction: Land–climate interactions
2.1.1
Recap of previous IPCC and other relevant reports as baselines
2.1.2
Introduction to the chapter structure
2.2
The effect of climate variability and change on land
2.2.1
Overview of climate impacts on land
2.2.1.1
Climate drivers of land form and function
2.2.1.2
Changes in global land surface air temperature
2.2.2
Climate-driven changes in aridity
2.2.3
The influence of climate change on food security
2.2.4
Climate-driven changes in terrestrial ecosystems
2.2.5
Climate extremes and their impact on land functioning
2.2.5.1
Changes in extreme temperatures, heatwaves and drought
2.2.5.2
Impacts of heat extremes and drought on land
2.2.5.3
Changes in heavy precipitation
2.2.5.4
Impacts of precipitation extremes on different land cover types
2.3
Greenhouse gas fluxes between land and atmosphere
2.3.1
Carbon dioxide
2.3.1.1
The total net flux of CO2 between land and atmosphere
2.3.1.2
Separation of the total net land flux into AFOLU fluxes and the land sink
2.3.1.3
Gross emissions and removals contributing to AFOLU emissions
2.3.1.4
Gross emissions and removals contributing to the non-anthropogenic land sink
2.3.1.5
Potential impact of mitigation on atmospheric CO
2
concentrations
2.3.2
Methane
2.3.2.1
Atmospheric trends
2.3.2.2
Land use effects
2.3.3
Nitrous oxide
2.3.3.1
Atmospheric trends
2.3.3.2
Land use effects
2.4
Emissions and impacts of short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) from land
2.4.1
Mineral dust
2.4.1.1
Mineral dust as a short-lived climate forcer from land
2.4.1.2
Effects of past climate change on dust emissions and feedbacks
2.4.1.3
Future changes of dust emissions
2.4.2
Carbonaceous aerosols
2.4.2.1
Carbonaceous aerosol precursors of short-lived climate forcers from land
2.4.2.2
Effects of past climate change on carbonaceous aerosols emissions and feedbacks
2.4.2.3
Future changes of carbonaceous aerosol emissions
2.4.3
Biogenic volatile organic compounds
2.4.3.1
BVOC precursors of short-lived climate forcers from land
2.4.3.2
Historical changes of BVOCs and contribution to climate change
2.4.3.3
Future changes of BVOCs
2.5
Land impacts on climate and weather through biophysical and GHG effects
2.5.1
Impacts of historical and future anthropogenic land cover changes
2.5.1.1
Impacts of global historical land cover changes on climate
2.5.1.2
Impacts of future global land cover changes on climate
2.5.2
Impacts of specific land use changes
2.5.2.1
Impacts of deforestation and forestation
2.5.2.2
Impacts of changes in land management
2.5.3
Amplifying/dampening climate changes via land responses
2.5.3.1
Effects of changes in land cover and productivity resulting from global warming
2.5.3.2
Feedbacks to climate from high-latitude land-surface changes
2.5.3.3
Feedbacks related to changes in soil moisture resulting from global warming
2.5.4
Non-local and downwind effects resulting from changes in land cover
2.6
Climate consequences of response options
2.6.1
Climate impacts of individual response options
2.6.1.1
Land management in agriculture
2.6.1.2
Land management in forests
2.6.1.3
Land management of soils
2.6.1.4
Land management in other ecosystems
2.6.1.5
Bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
2.6.1.6
Enhanced weathering
2.6.1.7
Demand management in the food sector (diet change, waste reduction)
2.6.2
Integrated pathways for climate change mitigation
2.6.3
The contribution of response options to the Paris Agreement
2.7
Plant and soil processes underlying land–climate interactions
2.7.1
Temperature responses of plant and ecosystem production
2.7.2
Water transport through soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and drought mortality
2.7.3
Soil microbial effects on soil nutrient dynamics and plant responses to elevated CO2
2.7.4
Vertical distribution of soil organic carbon
2.7.5
Soil carbon responses to warming and changes in soil moisture
2.7.6
Soil carbon responses to changes in organic matter inputs by plants
Desertification
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ES
Executive Summary
3.1
The nature of desertification
3.1.1
Introduction
3.1.2
Desertification in previous IPCC and related reports
3.1.3
Dryland populations: Vulnerability and resilience
3.1.4
Processes and drivers of desertification under climate change
3.1.4.1
Processes of desertification and their climatic drivers
3.1.4.2
Anthropogenic drivers of desertification under climate change
3.1.4.3
Interaction of drivers: Desertification syndrome versus drylands development paradigm
3.2
Observations of desertification
3.2.1
Status and trends of desertification
3.2.1.1
Global scale
3.2.1.2
Regional scale
3.2.2
Attribution of desertification
3.3
Desertification feedbacks to climate
3.3.1
Sand and dust aerosols
3.3.1.1
Off-site feedbacks
3.3.2
Changes in surface albedo
3.3.3
Changes in vegetation and greenhouse gas fluxes
3.4
Desertification impacts on natural and socio-economic systems under climate change
3.4.1
Impacts on natural and managed ecosystems
3.4.1.1
Impacts on ecosystems and their services in drylands
3.4.1.2
Impacts on biodiversity: Plant and wildlife
3.4.2
Impacts on socio-economic systems
3.4.2.1
Impacts on poverty
3.4.2.2
Impacts on food and nutritional insecurity
3.4.2.3
Impacts on human health through dust storms
3.4.2.4
Impacts on gender equality
3.4.2.5
Impacts on water scarcity and use
3.4.2.6
Impacts on energy infrastructure through dust storms
3.4.2.7
Impacts on transport infrastructure through dust storms and sand movement
3.4.2.8
Impacts on conflicts
3.4.2.9
Impacts on migration
3.4.2.10
Impacts on pastoral communities
3.5
Future projections
3.5.1
Future projections of desertification
3.5.1.1
Future vulnerability and risk of desertification
3.5.2
Future projections of impacts
3.6
Responses to desertification under climate change
3.6.1
SLM technologies and practices: On-the-ground actions
3.6.1.1
Integrated crop–soil–water management
3.6.1.2
Grazing and fire management in drylands
3.6.1.3
Clearance of bush encroachment
3.6.1.4
Combating sand and dust storms through sand dune stabilisation
3.6.1.5
Use of halophytes for the re-vegetation of saline lands
3.6.2
Socio-economic responses
3.6.2.1
Socio-economic responses for combating desertification under climate change
3.6.2.2
Socio-economic responses for economic diversification
3.6.3
Policy responses
3.6.3.1
Policy responses towards combating desertification under climate change
3.6.3.2
Policy responses supporting economic diversification
3.6.4
Limits to adaptation, maladaptation, and barriers for mitigation
3.7
Hotspots and case studies
3.7.1
Climate change and soil erosion
3.7.1.1
Soil erosion under changing climate in drylands
3.7.1.2
No-till practices for reducing soil erosion in central Chile
3.7.1.3
Combating wind erosion and deflation in Turkey: The greening desert of Karapınar
3.7.1.4
Soil erosion in Central Asia under changing climate
3.7.2
Green walls and green dams
3.7.2.1
The experiences of combating desertification in China
3.7.2.2
The Green Dam in Algeria
3.7.2.3
The Great Green Wall of the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative
3.7.3
Invasive plant species
3.7.3.1
Introduction
3.7.3.2
Ethiopia
3.7.3.3
Mexico
3.7.3.4
United States of America
3.7.3.5
Pakistan
3.7.4
Oases in hyper-arid areas in the Arabian Peninsula and northern Africa
3.7.5
Integrated watershed management
3.7.5.1
Jordan
3.7.5.2
India
3.7.5.3
Limpopo River Basin
3.8
Knowledge gaps and key uncertainties
Land Degradation
View chapter
ES
Executive Summary
4.1
Introduction
4.1.1
Scope of the chapter
4.1.2
Perspectives of land degradation
4.1.3
Definition of land degradation
4.1.4
Land degradation in previous IPCC reports
4.1.5
Sustainable land management (SLM) and sustainable forest management (SFM)
4.1.6
The human dimension of land degradation and forest degradation
4.2
Land degradation in the context of climate change
4.2.1
Processes of land degradation
4.2.1.1
Types of land degradation processes
4.2.1.2
Land degradation processes and climate change
4.2.2
Drivers of land degradation
4.2.3
Attribution in the case of land degradation
4.2.3.1
Direct linkages with climate change
4.2.3.2
Indirect and complex linkages with climate change
4.2.4
Approaches to assessing land degradation
4.3
Status and current trends of land degradation
4.3.1
Land degradation
4.3.2
Forest degradation
4.4
Projections of land degradation in a changing climate
4.4.1
Direct impacts on land degradation
4.4.1.1
Changes in water erosion risk due to precipitation changes
4.4.1.2
Climate-induced vegetation changes, implications for land degradation
4.4.1.3
Coastal erosion
4.4.2
Indirect impacts on land degradation
4.5
Impacts of bioenergy and technologies for CO2 removal (CDR) on land degradation
4.5.1
Potential scale of bioenergy and land-based CDR
4.5.2
Risks of land degradation from expansion of bioenergy and land-based CDR
4.5.3
Potential contributions of land-based CDR to reducing and reversing land degradation
4.5.4
Traditional biomass provision and land degradation
4.6
Impacts of land degradation on climate
4.6.1
Impact on greenhouse gases (GHGs)
4.6.2
Physical impacts
4.7
Impacts of climate-related land degradation on poverty and livelihoods
4.7.1
Relationships between land degradation, climate change and poverty
4.7.2
Impacts of climate-related land degradation on food security
4.7.3
Impacts of climate-related land degradation on migration and conflict
4.8
4.8 Addressing land degradation in the context of climate change
4.8.1
4.8.1 Actions on the ground to address land degradation
4.8.1.1
4.8.1.1 Agronomic and soil management measures
4.8.1.2
Mechanical soil and water conservation
4.8.1.3
Agroforestry
4.8.1.4
Crop–livestock interaction as an approach to managing land degradation
4.8.2
Local and indigenous knowledge for addressing land degradation
4.8.3
Reducing deforestation and forest degradation and increasing afforestation
4.8.4
Sustainable forest management (SFM) and CO2 removal (CDR) technologies
4.8.5
Policy responses to land degradation
4.8.5.1
Limits to adaptation
4.8.6
Resilience and thresholds
4.8.7
Barriers to implementation of sustainable land management (SLM)
4.9
Case studies
4.9.1
Urban green infrastructure
4.9.2
Perennial grains and soil organic carbon (SOC)
4.9.3
Reversing land degradation through reforestation
4.9.3.1
South Korea case study on reforestation success
4.9.3.2
China case study on reforestation success
4.9.4
Degradation and management of peat soils
4.9.5
Biochar
4.9.5.1
Role of biochar in climate change mitigation
4.9.5.2
Role of biochar in management of land degradation
4.9.6
Management of land degradation induced by tropical cyclones
4.9.7
Saltwater intrusion
4.9.8
Avoiding coastal maladaptation
4.10
Knowledge gaps and key uncertainties
Food Security
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ES
Executive Summary
5.1
Framing and context
5.1.1
Food security and insecurity, the food system and climate change
5.1.1.1
Food security as an outcome of the food system
5.1.1.2
Effects of climate change on food security
5.1.2
Status of the food system, food insecurity and malnourishment
5.1.2.1
Trends in the global food system
5.1.2.2
Food insecurity status and trends
5.1.3
Climate change, gender and equity
5.1.4
Food systems in AR5, SR15, and the Paris Agreement
5.1.4.1
Food systems in AR5 and SR15
5.1.4.2
Food systems and the Paris Agreement
5.1.4.3
Charting the future of food security
5.2
Impacts of climate change on food systems
5.2.1
Climate drivers important to food security
5.2.1.1
Short-lived climate pollutants
5.2.2
Climate change impacts on food availability
5.2.3
Climate change impacts on access
5.2.4
Climate change impacts on food utilisation
5.2.5
Climate change impacts on food stability
5.2.5.1
Impacts of extreme events
5.2.5.2
Food aid
5.3
Adaptation options, challenges and opportunities
5.3.1
Challenges and opportunities
5.3.2
Adaptation framing and key concepts
5.3.2.1
Autonomous, incremental, and transformational adaptation
5.3.2.2
Risk management
5.3.2.3
Role of agroecology and diversification
5.3.2.4
Role of cultural values
5.3.3
Supply-side adaptation
5.3.3.1
Crop production
5.3.3.2
Livestock production systems
5.3.3.3
Aquaculture, fisheries, and agriculture interactions
5.3.3.4
Transport and storage
5.3.3.5
Trade and processing
5.3.4
Demand-side adaptation
5.3.5
Institutional measures
5.3.6
Tools and finance
5.4
Impacts of food systems on climate change
5.5
Mitigation options, challenges and opportunities
5.5.1 Supply-side mitigation options
5.5.2 Demand-side mitigation options
5.5.2.1
Mitigation potential of different diets
5.5.2.2
Role of dietary preferences
5.5.2.3
Uncertainties in demand-side mitigation potential
5.5.2.4
Insect-based diets
5.5.2.5
Food loss and waste, food security, and land use
5.5.2.6
Shortening supply chains
5.6
Mitigation, adaptation, food security and land use: Synergies, trade-offs and co-benefits
5.6.1
Land-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and bioenergy
5.6.2
Mitigation, food prices, and food security
5.6.3
Environmental and health effects of adopting healthy and sustainable diets
5.6.3.1
Can dietary shifts provide significant benefits?
5.6.4
Sustainable integrated agricultural systems
5.6.4.1
Agroecology
5.6.4.2
Climate-smart agriculture
5.6.4.3
Conservation agriculture
5.6.4.4
Sustainable intensification
5.6.5
Role of urban agriculture
5.6.6
Links to the Sustainable Development Goals
5.7
Enabling conditions and knowledge gaps
5.7.1
Enabling policy environments
5.7.1.1
Agriculture and trade policy
5.7.1.2
Scope for expanded policies
5.7.1.3
Health-related policies and cost savings
5.7.1.4
Multiple policy pathways
5.7.2
Enablers for changing markets and trade
5.7.2.1
Capital markets
5.7.2.2
Insurance and re-insurance
5.7.3
Just Transitions to sustainability
5.7.4
Mobilising knowledge
5.7.4.1
Indigenous and local knowledge
5.7.4.2 Citizen science
5.7.4.3
Capacity building and education
5.7.5
Knowledge gaps and key research areas
5.7.5.1
Impacts and adaptation
5.7.5.2
Emissions and mitigation
5.7.5.3
Synergies and trade-offs
5.8
Future challenges to food security
5.8.1
Food price spikes
5.8.2
Migration and conflict
5.8.2.1
Migration
5.8.2.2
Conflict
SM
Supplementary Material
Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options
View chapter
ES
Executive Summary
6.1
Introduction
6.1.1
Context of this chapter
6.1.2
Framing social challenges and acknowledging enabling factors
6.1.3
Challenges and response options in current and historical interventions
6.1.4
Challenges represented in future scenarios
6.2
Response options, co-benefits and adverse side effects across the land challenges
6.2.1
Integrated response options based on land management
6.2.1.1
Integrated response options based on land management in agriculture
6.2.1.2
Integrated response options based on land management in forests
6.2.1.3
Integrated response options based on land management of soils
6.2.1.4
Integrated response options based on land management of all/other ecosystems
6.2.1.5
Integrated response options based on land management specifically for carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
6.2.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management
6.2.2.1
Integrated response options based on value chain management through demand management
6.2.2.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management through supply management
6.2.3
Integrated response options based on risk management
6.2.3.1
Risk management options
6.3
Potentials for addressing the land challenges
6.3.1
Potential of the integrated response options for delivering mitigation
6.3.1.1
Integrated response options based on land management
6.3.1.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management
6.3.1.3
Integrated response options based on risk management
6.3.2
Potential of the integrated response options for delivering adaptation
6.3.2.1
Integrated response options based on land management
6.3.2.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management
6.3.2.3
Integrated response options based on risk management
6.3.3
Potential of the integrated response options for addressing desertification
6.3.3.1
Integrated response options based on land management
6.3.3.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management
6.3.3.3
Integrated response options based on risk management
6.3.4
Potential of the integrated response options for addressing land degradation
6.3.4.1
Integrated response options based on land management
6.3.4.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management
6.3.4.3
Integrated response options based on risk management
6.3.5
Potential of the integrated response options for addressing food security
6.3.5.1
Integrated response options based on land management
6.3.5.2
Integrated response options based on value chain management
6.3.5.3
Integrated response options based on risk management
6.3.6
Summarising the potential of the integrated response options across mitigation, adaptation, desertification land degradation and food security
6.4
Managing interactions and interlinkages
6.4.1
Feasibility of the integrated response options with respect to costs, barriers, saturation and reversibility
6.4.2
Sensitivity of the integrated response options to climate change impacts
6.4.3
Impacts of integrated response options on Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
6.4.3.2
Impacts of integrated response options on the UNSDGs
6.4.3.1
Impacts of integrated response options on NCP
6.4.4
Opportunities for implementing integrated response options
6.4.4.1
Where can the response options be applied?
6.4.4.2
Interlinkages and response options in future scenarios
6.4.4.3
Resolving challenges in response option implementation
6.4.5
Potential consequences of delayed action
SM
Supplementary Material
Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development
View chapter
ES
Executive summary
7.1
Introduction and relation to other chapters
7.1.1
Findings of previous IPCC assessments and reports
7.1.2
Treatment of key terms in the chapter
7.1.3
Roadmap to the chapter
7.2
Climate-related risks for land-based human systems and ecosystems
7.2.1
Assessing risk
7.2.2
Risks to land systems arising from climate change
7.2.2.1
Crop yield in low latitudes
7.2.2.2
Food supply instability
7.2.2.3
Soil erosion
7.2.2.4
Dryland water scarcity
7.2.2.5
Vegetation degradation
7.2.2.6
Fire damage
7.2.2.7
Permafrost
7.2.2.8
Risks of desertification, land degradation and food insecurity under different Future Development Pathways
7.2.3
Risks arising from responses to climate change
7.2.3.1
Risk associated with land-based adaptation
7.2.3.2
Risk associated with land-based mitigation
7.2.4
Risks arising from hazard, exposure and vulnerability
7.3
Consequences of climate – land change for human well-being and sustainable development
7.3.1
What is at stake for food security?
7.3.2
Risks to where and how people live: Livelihood systems and migration
7.3.3
Risks to humans from disrupted ecosystems and species
7.3.4
Risks to communities and infrastructure
7.3.4.1
Windows of opportunity
7.4
Policy instruments for land and climate
7.4.1
Multi-level policy instruments
7.4.2
Policies for food security and social protection
7.4.2.1
Policies to ensure availability, access, utilisation and stability of food
7.4.2.2
Policies to secure social protection
7.4.3
Policies responding to climate-related extremes
7.4.3.1
Risk management instruments
7.4.3.2
Drought-related risk minimising instruments
7.4.3.3
Fire-related risk minimising instruments
7.4.3.4
Flood-related risk minimising instruments
7.4.4
Policies responding to greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes
7.4.4.1
GHG fluxes and climate change mitigation
7.4.4.2
Mitigation instruments
7.4.4.3
Market-based instruments
7.4.4.4
Technology transfer and land-use sectors
7.4.4.5
International cooperation under the Paris Agreement
7.4.5
Policies responding to desertification and degradation – Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN)
7.4.6
Policies responding to land degradation
7.4.6.1
Land-use zoning
7.4.6.2
Conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES)
7.4.6.3
Standards and certification for sustainability of biomass and land-use sectors
7.4.6.4
Energy access and biomass use
7.4.7
Economic and financial instruments for adaptation, mitigation, and land
7.4.7.1
Financing mechanisms for land mitigation and adaptation
7.4.7.2
Instruments to manage the financial impacts of climate and land change disruption
7.4.7.3
Innovative financing approaches for transition to low-carbon economies
7.4.8
Enabling effective policy instruments – policy portfolio coherence
7.4.9
Barriers to implementing policy responses
7.4.9.1
Barriers to adaptation
7.4.9.2
Barriers to land-based climate mitigation
7.4.9.3
Inequality
7.4.9.4
Corruption and elite capture
7.4.9.5
Overcoming barriers
7.5
Decision-making for climate change and land
7.5.1
Formal and informal decision-making
7.5.1.1
Formal Decision Making
7.5.1.2
Informal decision-making
7.5.2
Decision-making, timing, risk, and uncertainty
7.5.2.1
Problem structuring
7.5.2.2
Decision-making tools
7.5.2.3
Cost and timing of action
7.5.3
Best practices of decision-making toward sustainable land management (SLM)
7.5.4
Adaptive management
7.5.5
Performance indicators
7.5.6
Maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs
7.5.6.1
Trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services (ES)
7.5.6.2
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Synergies and trade-offs
7.5.6.3
Forests and agriculture
7.5.6.4
Water, food and aquatic ecosystem services (ES)
7.5.6.5
Considering synergies and trade-offs to avoid maladaptation
7.6
Governance: Governing the land–climate interface
7.6.1
Institutions building adaptive and mitigative capacity
7.6.2
Integration – Levels, modes and scale of governance for sustainable development
7.6.3
Adaptive climate governance responding to uncertainty
7.6.4
Participation
7.6.5
Land tenure
7.6.6
Institutional dimensions of adaptive governance
7.6.7
Inclusive governance for sustainable development
7.7
Key uncertainties and knowledge gaps
SM
Supplementary Material
Annex-I Glossary
View chapter
Annex-II Acronyms
View chapter
Annex-III Contributors
View chapter
Annex-IV Reviewers
View chapter
Annex-V Index
View chapter
