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Chapter 33.43.4.4

3.4.4.5Ocean acidification

… et al., 2014). While changes to ocean chemistry are likely to be of central importance, the literature on how climate change might influence ocean chemistry over the short and long term is limited (medium confidence). By contrast, numerous risks from the …

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Chapter 33.43.4.4

3.4.4.4Ocean circulation

… well as primary productivity and food production. Firmly attributing recent changes in the strength and direction of ocean currents to climate change , however, is complicated by long-term patterns and variability (e.g., Pacific decadal oscillation, PDO; Signorini et al., 2015) and …

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Chapter 33.4

3.4.4Ocean Ecosystems

… year (e.g., Costanza et al., 2014; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2015). Together with local stresses (Halpern et al., 2015), climate change poses a major threat to an increasing number of ocean ecosystems (e.g., warm water or tropical coral reefs: virtually certain, …

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Chapter 33.43.4.3

3.4.3.5Regional and ecosystem-specific risks

… global warming of approximately 1.6°C), with only slightly larger losses for RCP4.5 (2°C of global warming). Projected impacts on forests as climate change occurs include increases in the intensity of storms, wildfires and pest outbreaks (Settele et al., 2014), potentially leading to …

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Chapter 33.43.4.3

3.4.3.4Changes in ecosystem function, biomass and carbon stocks

… concentrations are contributing to this trend through stimulation of photosynthesis. There is, however, no clear and consistent signal of a climate change contribution. In northern latitudes, the change in productivity has a lower velocity than the warming, possibly because of a lack …

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Chapter 33.43.4.3

3.4.3.3Changes in species range, abundance and extinction

… number=473] found that 47% of local extinctions (extirpations) reported across the globe during the 20th century could be attributed to climate change , with significantly more extinctions occurring in tropical regions, in freshwater habitats and for animals. IUCN (2018) lists 305 …

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Chapter 33.43.4.3

3.4.3.2Changes in phenology

… difference vegetation index, NDVI; Piao et al., 2015). The potential for decoupling species–species interactions owing to differing phenological responses to climate change is well established (Settele et al., 2014), for example for plants and their insect pollinators (Willmer, 2012; Scaven and …

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Chapter 33.43.4.3

3.4.3.1Biome shifts

… new studies confirm these changes (e.g., shrub encroachment on tundra; Larsen et al., 2014). Attribution studies indicate that anthropogenic climate change has made a greater contribution to these changes than any other factor (medium confidence) (Settele et al., 2014). An ensemble …

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Chapter 33.43.4.2

3.4.2.5Soil erosion and sediment load

… concluded that there is little or no observational evidence that soil erosion and sediment load have been altered significantly by climate change (low to medium confidence) (Jiménez Cisneros et al., 2014). As the number of studies on

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Chapter 33.43.4.2

3.4.2.4Water quality

Working Group II of AR5 concluded that most observed changes to water quality from climate change are from isolated studies, mostly of rivers or lakes in high-income countries, using a small number of variables (Jiménez Cisneros …

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