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Chapter 33.4

3.4.13Synthesis of Key Elements of Risk

… risk for a representative set of natural and human systems from increases in global mean surface temperature (GMST) and anthropogenic climate change . The elements included are supported by a substantive enough body of literature providing at least medium confidence in the …

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Chapter 33.4

3.4.12Summary of Projected Risks at 1.5°C and 2°C of Global Warming

Sector Physical climate change drivers Nature of risk Global risks at 1.5°C of global warming above pre-industrial Global risks at 2°C of global warming above pre-industrial Change in …

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Chapter 33.4

3.4.11Interacting and Cascading Risks

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Chapter 33.43.4.10

3.4.10.2The changing structure of communities: migration, displacement and conflict

Migration: In AR5, the potential impacts of climate change on migration and displacement were identified as an emerging risk (Oppenheimer et al., 2014). The social, economic and environmental …

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Chapter 33.43.4.10

3.4.10.1Livelihoods and poverty

At approximately 1.5°C of global warming (2030), climate change is expected to be a poverty multiplier that makes poor people poorer and increases the poverty head count (Hallegatte et …

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Chapter 33.4

3.4.10Livelihoods and Poverty, and the Changing Structure of Communities

… changing structure of communities related to migration, displacement and conflict (Adger et al., 2014). In AR5, evidence of a climate change signal was limited, with more evidence of impacts of

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Chapter 33.43.4.9

3.4.9.3Transportation

… SLR; and incidence of freeze–thaw cycles (Arent et al., 2014). Much of the published research on the risks of climate change for the transportation sector has been qualitative. The limited new research since AR5 supports the notion that increases in global temperatures …

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Chapter 33.43.4.9

3.4.9.2Energy systems

… Strzepek, 2012). Impacts on energy systems can affect gross domestic product (GDP). The economic damage in the United States from climate change is estimated to be, on average, roughly 1.2% cost of GDP per year per 1°C increase under RCP8.5 (Hsiang et …

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Chapter 33.43.4.9

3.4.9.1Tourism

The implications of climate change for the global tourism sector are far-reaching and are impacting sector investments, destination assets (environment and cultural), operational and transportation …

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Chapter 33.4

3.4.9Key Economic Sectors and Services

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