Figure 2.2 — Global Warming of 1.5 ºC

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Figure 2.2

Changes and uncertainties in effective radiative forcings (ERF) for one 1.5°C-consistent pathway (SSP2-19) as estimated by MAGICC and FAIR.

The lines are indicative of the total effective radiative forcing from all anthropogenic sources (solid lines) and for non-CO₂ agents only (dashed lines), as represented by MAGICC (red) and FAIR (blue) relative to 2010, respectively. Vertical bars show the mean radiative forcing as predicted by MAGICC and FAIR of relevant non-CO₂ agents for year 2030, 2050 and 2100. The vertical lines give the uncertainty (1 standard deviation) of the ERFs for the represented species.

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Original Creation for this Report using the SR15 scenario database

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Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Glossary

Summary for Policymakers

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IIntroduction
AUnderstanding Global Warming of 1.5°C*
BProjected Climate Change, Potential Impacts and Associated Risks
CEmission Pathways and System Transitions Consistent with 1.5°C Global Warming
DStrengthening the Global Response in the Context of Sustainable Development and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty
+Core Concepts Central to this Special Report
+Acknowledgements
+Citation
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Framing and Context

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ESExecutive Summary
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1.1Assessing the Knowledge Base for a 1.5°C Warmer World
1.2Understanding 1.5°C: Reference Levels, Probability, Transience, Overshoot, and Stabilization
1.3Impacts at 1.5°C and Beyond
- 1.3.1Definitions
- 1.3.2Drivers of Impacts
- 1.3.3Uncertainty and Non-Linearity of Impacts
1.4Strengthening the Global Response
1.5Assessment Frameworks and Emerging Methodologies that Integrate Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation with Sustainable Development
- 1.5.1Knowledge Sources and Evidence Used in the Report
- 1.5.2Assessment Frameworks and Methodologies
1.6Confidence, Uncertainty and Risk
1.7Storyline of the Report
FAQsFrequently Asked Questions
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Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development

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2.1Introduction to Mitigation Pathways and the Sustainable Development Context
2.2Geophysical Relationships and Constraints
- 2.2.1Geophysical Characteristics of Mitigation Pathways
  - 2.2.1.1Geophysical uncertainties: non-CO₂ forcing agents
  - 2.2.1.2Geophysical uncertainties: climate and Earth system feedbacks
- 2.2.2The Remaining 1.5°C Carbon Budget
  - 2.2.2.1Carbon budget estimates
  - 2.2.2.2CO₂ and non-CO₂ contributions to the remaining carbon budget
2.3Overview of 1.5°C Mitigation Pathways
2.4Disentangling the Whole-System Transformation
- 2.4.1Energy System Transformation
- 2.4.2Energy Supply
- 2.4.3Energy End-Use Sectors
  - 2.4.3.1Industry
  - 2.4.3.2Buildings
  - 2.4.3.3Transport
- 2.4.4Land-Use Transitions and Changes in the Agricultural Sector
2.5Challenges, Opportunities and Co-Impacts of Transformative Mitigation Pathways
- 2.5.1Policy Frameworks and Enabling Conditions
- 2.5.2Economic and Investment Implications of 1.5°C Pathways
  - 2.5.2.1Price of carbon emissions
  - 2.5.2.2Investments
- 2.5.3Sustainable Development Features of 1.5°C Pathways
2.6Knowledge Gaps
- 2.6.1Geophysical Understanding
- 2.6.2Integrated Assessment Approaches
- 2.6.3Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
FAQsFrequently Asked Questions
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Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems

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3.1About the Chapter
3.2How are Risks at 1.5°C and Higher Levels of Global Warming Assessed in this Chapter?
- 3.2.1How are Changes in Climate and Weather at 1.5°C versus Higher Levels of Warming Assessed?
- 3.2.2How are Potential Impacts on Ecosystems Assessed at 1.5°C versus Higher Levels of Warming?
3.3Global and Regional Climate Changes and Associated Hazards
3.4Observed Impacts and Projected Risks in Natural and Human Systems
- 3.4.1Introduction
- 3.4.2Freshwater Resources (Quantity and Quality)
  - 3.4.2.1Water availability
  - 3.4.2.2Extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts)
  - 3.4.2.3Groundwater
  - 3.4.2.4Water quality
  - 3.4.2.5Soil erosion and sediment load
- 3.4.3Terrestrial and Wetland Ecosystems
  - 3.4.3.1Biome shifts
  - 3.4.3.2Changes in phenology
  - 3.4.3.3Changes in species range, abundance and extinction
  - 3.4.3.4Changes in ecosystem function, biomass and carbon stocks
  - 3.4.3.5Regional and ecosystem-specific risks
  - 3.4.3.6Summary of implications for ecosystem services
- 3.4.4Ocean Ecosystems
  - 3.4.4.1Observed impacts
  - 3.4.4.2Warming and stratification of the surface ocean
  - 3.4.4.3Storms and coastal runoff
  - 3.4.4.4Ocean circulation
  - 3.4.4.5Ocean acidification
  - 3.4.4.6Deoxygenation
  - 3.4.4.7Loss of sea ice
  - 3.4.4.8Sea level rise
  - 3.4.4.9Projected risks and adaptation options for oceans under global warming of 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels
  - 3.4.4.10Framework organisms (tropical corals, mangroves and seagrass)
  - 3.4.4.11Ocean foodwebs (pteropods, bivalves, krill and fin fish)
  - 3.4.4.12Key ecosystem services (e.g., carbon uptake, coastal protection, and tropical coral reef recreation)
- 3.4.5Coastal and Low-Lying Areas, and Sea Level Rise
  - 3.4.5.1Global / sub-global scale
  - 3.4.5.2Cities
  - 3.4.5.3Small islands
  - 3.4.5.4Deltas and estuaries
  - 3.4.5.5Wetlands
  - 3.4.5.6Other coastal settings
  - 3.4.5.7Adapting to coastal change
- 3.4.6Food, Nutrition Security and Food Production Systems (Including Fisheries and Aquaculture)
  - 3.4.6.1Crop production
  - 3.4.6.2Livestock production
  - 3.4.6.3Fisheries and aquaculture production
- 3.4.7Human Health
  - 3.4.7.1Projected risk at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming
- 3.4.8Urban Areas
- 3.4.9Key Economic Sectors and Services
  - 3.4.9.1Tourism
  - 3.4.9.2Energy systems
  - 3.4.9.3Transportation
- 3.4.10Livelihoods and Poverty, and the Changing Structure of Communities
  - 3.4.10.1Livelihoods and poverty
  - 3.4.10.2The changing structure of communities: migration, displacement and conflict
- 3.4.11Interacting and Cascading Risks
- 3.4.12Summary of Projected Risks at 1.5°C and 2°C of Global Warming
- 3.4.13Synthesis of Key Elements of Risk
3.5Avoided Impacts and Reduced Risks at 1.5°C Compared with 2°C of Global Warming
- 3.5.1Introduction
- 3.5.2 Aggregated Avoided Impacts and Reduced Risks at 1.5°C versus 2°C of Global Warming
  - 3.5.2.1RFC 1 – Unique and threatened systems
  - 3.5.2.2RFC 2 – Extreme weather events
  - 3.5.2.3RFC 3 – Distribution of impacts
  - 3.5.2.4RFC 4 – Global aggregate impacts
  - 3.5.2.5RFC 5 – Large-scale singular events
- 3.5.3 Regional Economic Benefit Analysis for the 1.5°C versus 2°C Global Goals
- 3.5.4 Reducing Hotspots of Change for 1.5°C and 2°C of Global Warming
  - 3.5.4.1Arctic sea ice
  - 3.5.4.2Arctic land regions
  - 3.5.4.3Alpine regions
  - 3.5.4.4Southeast Asia
  - 3.5.4.5Southern Europe and the Mediterranean
  - 3.5.4.6West Africa and the Sahel
  - 3.5.4.7Southern Africa
  - 3.5.4.8Tropics
  - 3.5.4.9Small islands
  - 3.5.4.10Fynbos and shrub biomes
- 3.5.5 Avoiding Regional Tipping Points by Achieving More Ambitious Global Temperature Goals
  - 3.5.5.1Arctic sea ice
  - 3.5.5.2Tundra
  - 3.5.5.3Permafrost
  - 3.5.5.4Asian monsoon
  - 3.5.5.5West African monsoon and the Sahel
  - 3.5.5.6Rainforests
  - 3.5.5.7Boreal forests
  - 3.5.5.8Heatwaves, unprecedented heat and human health
  - 3.5.5.9Agricultural systems: key staple crops
  - 3.5.5.10Agricultural systems: livestock in the tropics and subtropics
3.6Implications of Different 1.5°C and 2°C Pathways
- 3.6.1Gradual versus Overshoot in 1.5°C Scenarios
- 3.6.2Non-CO2 Implications and Projected Risks of Mitigation Pathways
- 3.6.3Implications Beyond the End of the Century
  - 3.6.3.1Sea ice
  - 3.6.3.2Sea level
  - 3.6.3.3Permafrost
3.7Knowledge Gaps
- 3.7.1 Gaps in Methods and Tools
- 3.7.2 Gaps in Understanding
  - 3.7.2.1Earth systems and 1.5°C of global warming
  - 3.7.2.2Physical and chemical characteristics of a 1.5°C warmer world
  - 3.7.2.3Terrestrial and freshwater systems
  - 3.7.2.4Ocean Systems
  - 3.7.2.5Human systems
FAQsFrequently Asked Questions
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Strengthening and implementing the global response

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4.1Accelerating the Global Response to Climate Change
4.2Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C: Starting Points for Strengthening Implementation
- 4.2.1 Implications for Implementation of 1.5°C-Consistent Pathways
  - 4.2.1.1Challenges and Opportunities for Mitigation Along the Reviewed Pathways
  - 4.2.1.2 Implications for Adaptation Along the Reviewed Pathways
- 4.2.2System Transitions and Rates of Change
  - 4.2.2.1Mitigation: historical rates of change and state of decoupling
  - 4.2.2.2Transformational adaptation
  - 4.2.2.3Disruptive innovation
4.3Systemic Changes for 1.5°C-Consistent Pathways
- 4.3.1Energy System Transitions
  - 4.3.1.1 Renewable electricity: solar and wind
  - 4.3.1.2Bioenergy and biofuels
  - 4.3.1.3Nuclear energy
  - 4.3.1.4Energy storage
  - 4.3.1.5Options for adapting electricity systems to 1.5°C
  - 4.3.1.6Carbon dioxide capture and storage in the power sector
- 4.3.2 Land and Ecosystem Transitions
  - 4.3.2.1 Agriculture and food
  - 4.3.2.2Forests and other ecosystems
  - 4.3.2.3Coastal systems
- 4.3.3 Urban and Infrastructure System Transitions
  - 4.3.3.1Urban energy systems
  - 4.3.3.2Urban infrastructure, buildings and appliances
  - 4.3.3.3Urban transport and urban planning
  - 4.3.3.4Electrification of cities and transport
  - 4.3.3.5Shipping, freight and aviation
  - 4.3.3.6Climate-resilient land use
  - 4.3.3.7Green urban infrastructure and ecosystem services
  - 4.3.3.8Sustainable urban water and environmental services
- 4.3.4Industrial Systems Transitions
  - 4.3.4.1Energy efficiency
  - 4.3.4.2Substitution and circularity
  - 4.3.4.3Bio-based feedstocks
  - 4.3.4.4Electrification and hydrogen
  - 4.3.4.5CO2 capture, utilization and storage in industry
- 4.3.5 Overarching Adaptation Options Supporting Adaptation Transitions
  - 4.3.5.1Disaster risk management (DRM)
  - 4.3.5.2Risk sharing and spreading
  - 4.3.5.3Education and learning
  - 4.3.5.4Population health and health system adaptation options
  - 4.3.5.5Indigenous knowledge
  - 4.3.5.6Human migration
  - 4.3.5.7Climate services
- 4.3.6Short-Lived Climate Forcers
- 4.3.7 Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
  - 4.3.7.1Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)
  - 4.3.7.2 Afforestation and reforestation (AR)
  - 4.3.7.3 Soil carbon sequestration and biochar
  - 4.3.7.4Enhanced weathering (EW) and ocean alkalinization
  - 4.3.7.5Direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage (DACCS)
  - 4.3.7.6Ocean fertilization
- 4.3.8Solar Radiation Modification (SRM)
  - 4.3.8.1Governance and institutional feasibility
  - 4.3.8.2Economic and technological feasibility
  - 4.3.8.3Social acceptability and ethics
4.4Implementing Far-Reaching and Rapid Change
4.5Integration and Enabling Transformation
4.6Knowledge Gaps and Key Uncertainties
FAQsFrequently Asked Questions
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Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities

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5.1Scope and Delineations
5.2Poverty, Equality and Equity Implications of a 1.5°C Warmer World
5.3Climate Adaptation and Sustainable Development
5.4Mitigation and Sustainable Development
- 5.4.1Synergies and Trade-Offs between Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development
- 5.4.2Sustainable Development Implications of 1.5°C and 2°C Mitigation Pathways
  - 5.4.2.1Air pollution and health
  - 5.4.2.2Food security and hunger
  - 5.4.2.3Lack of energy access/energy poverty
  - 5.4.2.4Water security
5.5Sustainable Development Pathways to 1.5°C
5.6Conditions for Achieving Sustainable Development, Eradicating Poverty and Reducing Inequalities in 1.5°C Warmer Worlds
- 5.6.1Finance and Technology Aligned with Local Needs
- 5.6.2Integration of Institutions
- 5.6.3Inclusive Processes
- 5.6.4Attention to Issues of Power and Inequality
- 5.6.5 Reconsidering Values
5.7Synthesis and Research Gaps
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Glossary

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