Sustainable Development, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities

Chapter 1 (see Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1) defines sustainable development as ‘development that meets the needs of the present and future generations’ through balancing economic, social and environmental considerations, and then introduces the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which sets out 17 ambitious goals for sustainable development for all countries by 2030. These SDGs are: no poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), good health and well-being (SDG 3), quality education (SDG 4), gender equality (SDG 5), clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), industry, innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), reduced inequalities (SDG 10), sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), climate action (SDG 13), life below water (SDG 14), life on land (SDG 15), peace, justice and strong institutions (SDG 16) and partnerships for the goals (SDG 17).

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) included extensive discussion of links between climate and sustainable development, especially in Chapter 13 (Olsson et al., 2014)¹ and Chapter 20 (Denton et al., 2014)² in Working Group II and Chapter 4 (Fleurbaey et al., 2014)³ in Working Group III. However, the AR5 preceded the 2015 adoption of the SDGs and the literature that argues for their fundamental links to climate (Wright et al., 2015; Salleh, 2016; von Stechow et al., 2016; Hammill and Price-Kelly, 2017; ICSU, 2017; Maupin, 2017; Gomez-Echeverri, 2018)⁴.

The SDGs build on efforts under the UN Millennium Development Goals to reduce poverty, hunger, and other deprivations. According to the UN, the Millennium Development Goals were successful in reducing poverty and hunger and improving water security (UN, 2015a)⁵. However, critics argued that they failed to address within-country disparities, human rights and key environmental concerns, focused only on developing countries, and had numerous measurement and attribution problems (Langford et al., 2013; Fukuda-Parr et al., 2014)⁶. While improvements in water security, slums and health may have reduced some aspects of climate vulnerability, increases in incomes were linked to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to a trade-off between development and climate change (Janetos et al., 2012; UN, 2015a; Hubacek et al., 2017)⁷.

While the SDGs capture many important aspects of sustainable development, including the explicit goals of poverty eradication and reducing inequality, there are direct connections from climate to other measures of sustainable development including multidimensional poverty, equity, ethics, human security, well-being and climate-resilient development (Bebbington and Larrinaga, 2014; Robertson, 2014; Redclift and Springett, 2015; Barrington-Leigh, 2016; Helliwell et al., 2018; Kirby and O’Mahony, 2018)⁸ (see Glossary). The UN proposes sustainable development as ‘eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, combating inequality within and among countries, preserving the planet, creating sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth and fostering social inclusion’ (UN, 2015b)⁹. There is robust evidence of the links between climate change and poverty (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 4). The AR5 concluded with high confidence that disruptive levels of climate change would preclude reducing poverty (Denton et al., 2014; Fleurbaey et al., 2014)¹⁰. International organizations have since stated that climate changes ‘undermine the ability of all countries to achieve sustainable development’ (UN, 2015b)¹¹ and can reverse or erase improvements in living conditions and decades of development (Hallegatte et al., 2016)¹².

Climate warming has unequal impacts on different people and places as a result of differences in regional climate changes, vulnerabilities and impacts, and these differences then result in unequal impacts on sustainable development and poverty (Section 5.2). Responses to climate change also interact in complex ways with goals of poverty reduction. The benefits of adaptation and mitigation projects and funding may accrue to some and not others, responses may be costly and unaffordable to some people and countries, and projects may disadvantage some individuals, groups and development initiatives (Sections 5.3 and 5.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11 in Chapter 4).

Pathways to 1.5°C (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Glossary) include ambitious reductions in emissions and strategies for adaptation that are transformational, as well as complex interactions with sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The AR5 WGII introduced the concept of climate-resilient development pathways (CRDPs) (see Glossary) which combine adaptation and mitigation to reduce climate change and its impacts, and emphasize the importance of addressing structural and intersecting inequalities, marginalization and multidimensional poverty to ‘transform […] the development pathways themselves towards greater social and environmental sustainability, equity, resilience, and justice’ (Olsson et al., 2014)¹³. This chapter assesses literature on CRDPs relevant to 1.5°C global warming (Section 5.5.3), to understand better the possible societal and systems transformations (see Glossary) that reduce inequality and increase well-being (Figure 5.1). It also summarizes the knowledge on conditions to achieve such transformations, including changes in technologies, culture, values, financing and institutions that support low-carbon and resilient pathways and sustainable development (Section 5.6).

A variety of sources of evidence are used to assess the interactions of sustainable development and the SDGs with the causes, impacts and responses to climate change of 1.5°C warming. This chapter builds on Chapter 3 to assess the sustainable development implications of impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C, and on Chapter 4 to examine the implications of response measures. Scientific and grey literature, with a post-AR5 focus, and data that evaluate, measure and model sustainable development–climate links from various perspectives, quantitatively and qualitatively, across scales, and through well-documented case studies are assessed.

Literature that explicitly links 1.5°C global warming to sustainable development across scales remains scarce; yet we find relevant insights in many recent publications on climate and development that assess impacts across warming levels, the effects of adaptation and mitigation response measures, and interactions with the SDGs. Relevant evidence also stems from emerging literature on possible pathways, overshoot and enabling conditions (see Glossary) for integrating sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities in the context of 1.5°C.

Global warming of 1.5°C will have consequences for sustainable development, poverty and inequalities. This includes residual risks, limits to adaptation, and losses and damages (Cross-Chapter Box 12 in this chapter; see Glossary). Some regions have already experienced a 1.5°C warming, with impacts on food and water security, health and other components of sustainable development (medium evidence, medium agreement) (see Chapter 3, Section 3.4). Climate change is also already affecting poorer subsistence communities through decreases in crop production and quality, increases in crop pests and diseases, and disruption to culture (Savo et al., 2016)¹⁸. It disproportionally affects children and the elderly and can increase gender inequality (Kaijser and Kronsell, 2014; Vinyeta et al., 2015; Carter et al., 2016; Hanna and Oliva, 2016; Li et al., 2016)¹⁹.

At 1.5°C warming, compared to current conditions, further negative consequences are expected for poor people, and inequality and vulnerability (medium evidence, high agreement). Hallegatte and Rozenberg (2017)²⁰ report that by 2030 (roughly approximating a 1.5°C warming), 122 million additional people could experience extreme poverty, based on a ‘poverty scenario’ of limited socio-economic progress, comparable to the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) 4 (inequality), mainly due to higher food prices and declining health, with substantial income losses for the poorest 20% across 92 countries. Pretis et al. (2018)²¹ estimate negative impacts on economic growth in lower-income countries at 1.5°C warming, despite uncertainties. Impacts are likely to occur simultaneously across livelihood, food, human, water and ecosystem security (limited evidence, high agreement) (Byers et al., 2018)²², but the literature on interacting and cascading effects remains scarce (Hallegatte et al., 2014; O’Neill et al., 2017b; Reyer et al., 2017a, b)²³.

Chapter 3 outlines future impacts and risks for ecosystems and human systems, many of which could also undermine sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty and hunger, and to protect health and ecosystems. Chapter 3 findings (see Section 3.5.2.1) suggest increasing Reasons for Concern from moderate to high at a warming of 1.1° to 1.6°C, including for indigenous people and their livelihoods, and ecosystems in the Arctic (O’Neill et al., 2017b)²⁴. In 2050, based on the Hadley Centre Climate Prediction Model 3 (HadCM3) and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1b scenario (roughly comparable to 1.5°C warming), 450 million more flood-prone people would be exposed to doubling in flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase substantially (Arnell and Gosling, 2016)²⁵. For droughts, poor people are expected to be more exposed (85% in population terms) in a warming scenario greater than 1.5°C for several countries in Asia and southern and western Africa (Winsemius et al., 2018)²⁶. In urban Africa, a 1.5°C warming could expose many households to water poverty and increased flooding (Pelling et al., 2018)²⁷. At 1.5ºC warming, fisheries-dependent and coastal livelihoods, of often disadvantaged populations, would suffer from the loss of coral reefs (see Chapter 3, Box 3.4).

Global heat stress is projected to increase in a 1.5°C warmer world, and by 2030, compared to 1961–1990, climate change could be responsible for additional annual deaths of 38,000 people from heat stress, particularly among the elderly, and 48,000 from diarrhoea, 60,000 from malaria, and 95,000 from childhood undernutrition (WHO, 2014)²⁸. Each 1°C increase could reduce work productivity by 1 to 3% for people working outdoors or without air conditioning, typically the poorer segments of the workforce (Park et al., 2015)²⁹.

The regional variation in the ‘warming experience at 1.5°C’ (see Chapter 1, Section 1.3.1) is large (see Chapter 3, Section 3.3.2). Declines in crop yields are widely reported for Africa (60% of observations), with serious consequences for subsistence and rain-fed agriculture and food security (Savo et al., 2016)³⁰. In Bangladesh, by 2050, damages and losses are expected for poor households dependent on freshwater fish stocks due to lack of mobility, limited access to land and strong reliance on local ecosystems (Dasgupta et al., 2017)³¹. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are expected to experience challenging conditions at 1.5°C warming due to increased risk of internal migration and displacement and limits to adaptation (see Chapter 3, Box 3.5, Cross-Chapter Box 12 in this chapter). An anticipated decline of marine fisheries of 3 million metric tonnes per degree warming would have serious regional impacts for the Indo-Pacific region and the Arctic (Cheung et al., 2016)³².

Avoided impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming are expected to have significant positive implications for sustainable development, and reducing poverty and inequality. Using the SSPs (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Section 5.5.2), Byers et al. (2018)³³ model the number of people exposed to multi-sector climate risks and vulnerable to poverty (income < $10/day), comparing 2°C and 1.5°C; the respective declines are from 86 million to 24 million for SSP1 (sustainability), from 498 million to 286 million for SSP2 (middle of the road), and from 1220 million to 763 million for SSP3 (regional rivalry), which suggests overall 62–457 million fewer people exposed and vulnerable at 1.5°C warming. Across the SSPs, the largest populations exposed and vulnerable are in South Asia (Byers et al., 2018)³⁴. The avoided impacts on poverty at 1.5°C relative to 2°C are projected to depend at least as much or more on development scenarios than on warming (Wiebe et al., 2015; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017)³⁵.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is expected to reduce the number of people exposed to hunger, water stress and disease in Africa (Clements, 2009)³⁶. It is also expected to limit the number of poor people exposed to floods and droughts at higher degrees of warming, especially in African and Asian countries (Winsemius et al., 2018)³⁷. Challenges for poor populations – relating to food and water security, clean energy access and environmental well-being – are projected to be less at 1.5°C, particularly for vulnerable people in Africa and Asia (Byers et al., 2018)³⁸. The overall projected socio-economic losses compared to the present day are less at 1.5°C (8% loss of gross domestic product per capita) compared to 2°C (13%), with lower-income countries projected to experience greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries (Pretis et al., 2018)³⁹.

The risks that can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5ºC rather than 2°C have many complex implications for sustainable development (ICSU, 2017; Gomez-Echeverri, 2018)⁴⁰. There is high confidence that constraining warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would reduce risks for unique and threatened ecosystems, safeguarding the services they provide for livelihoods and sustainable development and making adaptation much easier (O’Neill et al., 2017b)⁴¹, particularly in Central America, the Amazon, South Africa and Australia (Schleussner et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2017b; Reyer et al., 2017b; Bathiany et al., 2018)⁴².

In places that already bear disproportionate economic and social challenges to their sustainable development, people will face lower risks at 1.5°C compared to 2°C. These include North Africa and the Levant (less water scarcity), West Africa (less crop loss), South America and Southeast Asia (less intense heat), and many other coastal nations and island states (lower sea level rise, less coral reef loss) (Schleussner et al., 2016; Betts et al., 2018)⁴³. The risks for food, water and ecosystems, particularly in subtropical regions such as Central America and countries such as South Africa and Australia, are expected to be lower at 1.5°C than at 2°C warming (Schleussner et al., 2016)⁴⁴. Fewer people would be exposed to droughts and heat waves and the associated health impacts in countries such as Australia and India (King et al., 2017; Mishra et al., 2017)⁴⁵.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C would make it markedly easier to achieve the SDGs for poverty eradication, water access, safe cities, food security, healthy lives and inclusive economic growth, and would help to protect terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity (medium evidence, high agreement) (Table 5.2 available at the end of the chapter). For example, limiting species loss and expanding climate refugia will make it easier to achieve SDG 15 (see Chapter 3, Section 3.4.3). One indication of how lower temperatures benefit the SDGs is to compare the impacts of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (lower emissions) and RCP8.5 (higher emissions) on the SDGs (Ansuategi et al., 2015)⁴⁶. A low emissions pathway allows for greater success in achieving SDGs for reducing poverty and hunger, providing access to clean energy, reducing inequality, ensuring education for all and making cities more sustainable. Even at lower emissions, a medium risk of failure exists to meet goals for water and sanitation, and marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

Action on climate change (SDG 13), including slowing the rate of warming, would help reach the goals for water, energy, food and land (SDGs 6, 7, 2 and 15) (Obersteiner et al., 2016; ICSU, 2017)⁴⁷ and contribute to poverty eradication (SDG 1) (Byers et al., 2018)⁴⁸. Although the literature that connects 1.5°C to the SDGs is limited, a pathway that stabilizes warming at 1.5°C by the end of the century is expected to increase the chances of achieving the SDGs by 2030, with greater potential to eradicate poverty, reduce inequality and foster equity (limited evidence, medium agreement). There are no studies on overshoot and dimensions of sustainable development, although literature on 4°C of warming suggests the impacts would be severe (Reyer et al., 2017b)⁴⁹.

Making sustainable development a priority, and meeting the SDGs, is consistent with efforts to adapt to climate change (very high confidence). Sustainable development is effective in building adaptive capacity if it addresses poverty and inequalities, social and economic exclusion, and inadequate institutional capacities (Noble et al., 2014; Abel et al., 2016; Colloff et al., 2017)⁸¹. Four ways in which sustainable development leads to effective adaptation are described below.

First, sustainable development enables transformational adaptation (see Chapter 4, Section 4.2.2.2) when an integrated approach is adopted, with inclusive, transparent decision-making, rather than addressing current vulnerabilities as stand-alone climate problems (Mathur et al., 2014; Arthurson and Baum, 2015; Shackleton et al., 2015; Lemos et al., 2016; Antwi-Agyei et al., 2017b)⁸². Ending poverty in its multiple dimensions (SDG 1) is often a highly effective form of climate adaptation (Fankhauser and McDermott, 2014; Leichenko and Silva, 2014; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017)⁸³. However, ending poverty is not sufficient, and the positive outcome as an adaptation strategy depends on whether increased household wealth is actually directed towards risk reduction and management strategies (Nelson et al., 2016)⁸⁴, as shown in urban municipalities (Colenbrander et al., 2017; Rasch, 2017)⁸⁵ and agrarian communities (Hashemi et al., 2017)⁸⁶, and whether finance for adaptation is made available (Section 5.6.1).

Second, local participation is effective when wider socio-economic barriers are addressed via multiscale planning (McCubbin et al., 2015; Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner-Kerr, 2015; Toole et al., 2016)⁸⁷. This is the case, for instance, when national education efforts (SDG 4) (Muttarak and Lutz, 2014; Striessnig and Loichinger, 2015)⁸⁸ and indigenous knowledge (Nkomwa et al., 2014; Pandey and Kumar, 2018)⁸⁹ enhance information sharing, which also builds resilience (Santos et al., 2016; Martinez-Baron et al., 2018)⁹⁰ and reduces risks for maladaptation (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2018; Gajjar et al., 2018)⁹¹.

Third, development promotes transformational adaptation when addressing social inequalities (Section 5.5.3, 5.6.4), as in SDGs 4, 5, 16 and 17 (O’Brien, 2016, 2017)⁹². For example, SDG 5 supports measures that reduce women’s vulnerabilities and allow women to benefit from adaptation (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2015; Van Aelst and Holvoet, 2016; Cohen, 2017)⁹³. Mobilization of climate finance, carbon taxation and environmentally motivated subsidies can reduce inequalities (SDG 10), advance climate mitigation and adaptation (Chancel and Picketty, 2015)⁹⁴, and be conducive to strengthening and enabling environments for resilience building (Nhamo, 2016; Halonen et al., 2017)⁹⁵.

Fourth, when sustainable development promotes livelihood security, it enhances the adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities and households. Examples include SDG 11 supporting adaptation in cities to reduce harm from disasters (Kelman, 2017; Parnell, 2017)⁹⁶; access to water and sanitation (SDG 6) with strong institutions (SDG 16) (Rasul and Sharma, 2016)⁹⁷; SDG 2 and its targets that promote adaptation in agricultural and food systems (Lipper et al., 2014)⁹⁸; and targets for SDG 3 such as reducing infectious diseases and providing health cover are consistent with health-related adaptation (ICSU, 2017; Gomez-Echeverri, 2018)⁹⁹.

Sustainable development has the potential to significantly reduce systemic vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity and promote livelihood security for poor and disadvantaged populations (high confidence). Transformational adaptation (see Chapter 4, Sections 4.2.2.2 and 4.5.3) would require development that takes into consideration multidimensional poverty and entrenched inequalities, local cultural specificities and local knowledge in decision-making, thereby making it easier to achieve the SDGs in a 1.5°C warmer world (medium evidence, high agreement).

There are short-, medium-, and long-term positive impacts (synergies) and negative impacts (trade-offs) between the dual goals of keeping temperatures below 1.5°C global warming and achieving sustainable development. The extent of synergies between development and adaptation goals will vary by the development process adopted for a particular SDG and underlying vulnerability contexts (medium evidence, high agreement). Overall, the impacts of adaptation on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities in general, and the SDGs specifically, are expected to be largely positive, given that the inherent purpose of adaptation is to lower risks. Building on Chapter 4 (see Section 4.3.5), this section examines synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and sustainable development for some key sectors and approaches.

Agricultural adaptation: The most direct synergy is between SDG 2 (zero hunger) and adaptation in cropping, livestock and food systems, designed to maintain or increase production (Lipper et al., 2014; Rockström et al., 2017)¹⁰⁰. Farmers with effective adaptation strategies tend to enjoy higher food security and experience lower levels of poverty (FAO, 2015; Douxchamps et al., 2016; Ali and Erenstein, 2017)¹⁰¹. Vermeulen et al. (2016)¹⁰² report strong positive returns on investment across the world from agricultural adaptation with side benefits for environment and economic well-being. Well-adapted agricultural systems contribute to safe drinking water, health, biodiversity and equity goals (DeClerck et al., 2016; Myers et al., 2017)¹⁰³. Climate-smart agriculture has synergies with food security, though it can be biased towards technological solutions, may not be gender sensitive, and can create specific challenges for institutional and distributional aspects (Lipper et al., 2014; Arakelyan et al., 2017; Taylor, 2017)¹⁰⁴.

At the same time, adaptation options increase risks for human health, oceans and access to water if fertiliser and pesticides are used without regulation or when irrigation reduces water availability for other purposes (Shackleton et al., 2015; Campbell et al., 2016)¹⁰⁵. When agricultural insurance and climate services overlook the poor, inequality may rise (Dinku et al., 2014; Carr and Owusu-Daaku, 2015; Georgeson et al., 2017a; Carr and Onzere, 2018)¹⁰⁶. Agricultural adaptation measures may increase workloads, especially for women, while changes in crop mix can result in loss of income or culturally inappropriate food (Carr and Thompson, 2014; Thompson-Hall et al., 2016; Bryan et al., 2017)¹⁰⁷, and they may benefit farmers with more land to the detriment of land-poor farmers, as seen in the Mekong River Basin (see Chapter 3, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in Chapter 3).

Adaptation to protect human health: Adaptation options in the health sector are expected to reduce morbidity and mortality (Arbuthnott et al., 2016; Ebi and Otmani del Barrio, 2017)¹⁰⁸. Heat-early-warning systems help lower injuries, illnesses and deaths (Hess and Ebi, 2016)¹⁰⁹, with positive impacts for SDG 3. Institutions better equipped to share information, indicators for detecting climate-sensitive diseases, improved provision of basic health care services and coordination with other sectors also improve risk management, thus reducing adverse health outcomes (Dasgupta et al., 2016; Dovie et al., 2017)¹¹⁰. Effective adaptation creates synergies via basic public health measures (K.R. Smith et al., 2014; Dasgupta, 2016)¹¹¹ and health infrastructure protected from extreme weather events (Watts et al., 2015)¹¹². Yet trade-offs can occur when adaptation in one sector leads to negative impacts in another sector. Examples include the creation of urban wetlands through flood control measures which can breed mosquitoes, and migration eroding physical and mental well-being, hence adversely affecting SDG 3 (K.R. Smith et al., 2014; Watts et al., 2015)¹¹³. Similarly, increased use of air conditioning enhances resilience to heat stress (Petkova et al., 2017)¹¹⁴, yet it can result in higher energy consumption, undermining SDG 13.

Coastal adaptation: Adaptation to sea level rise remains essential in coastal areas even under a climate stabilization scenario of 1.5°C (Nicholls et al., 2018)¹¹⁵. Coastal adaptation to restore ecosystems (for instance by planting mangrove forests) supports SDGs for enhancing life and livelihoods on land and oceans (see Chapter 4, Sections 4.3.2.3). Synergistic outcomes between development and relocation of coastal communities are enhanced by participatory decision-making and settlement designs that promote equity and sustainability (van der Voorn et al., 2017)¹¹⁶. Limits to coastal adaptation may rise, for instance in low-lying islands in the Pacific, Caribbean and Indian Ocean, with attendant implications for loss and damage (see Chapter 3 Box 3.5, Chapter 4, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 4, Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 5, Box 5.3).

Migration as adaptation: Migration has been used in various contexts to protect livelihoods from challenges related to climate change (Marsh, 2015; Jha et al., 2017)¹¹⁷, including through remittances (Betzold and Weiler, 2017)¹¹⁸. Synergies between migration and the achievement of sustainable development depend on adaptive measures and conditions in both sending and receiving regions (Fatima et al., 2014; McNamara, 2015; Entzinger and Scholten, 2016; Ober and Sakdapolrak, 2017; Schwan and Yu, 2017)¹¹⁹. Adverse developmental impacts arise when vulnerable women or the elderly are left behind or if migration is culturally disruptive (Wilkinson et al., 2016; Albert et al., 2017; Islam and Shamsuddoha, 2017)¹²⁰.

Ecosystem-based adaptation: Ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) can offer synergies with sustainable development (Morita and Matsumoto, 2015; Ojea, 2015; Szabo et al., 2015; Brink et al., 2016; Butt et al., 2016; Conservation International, 2016; Huq et al., 2017)¹²¹, although assessments remain difficult (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.2.2) (Doswald et al., 2014)¹²². Examples include mangrove restoration reducing coastal vulnerability, protecting marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and increasing local food security, as well as watershed management reducing flood risks and improving water quality (Chong, 2014)¹²³. In drylands, EBA practices, combined with community-based adaptation, have shown how to link adaptation with mitigation to improve livelihood conditions of poor farmers (Box 5.1). Synergistic developmental outcomes arise where EBA is cost effective, inclusive of indigenous and local knowledge and easily accessible by the poor (Ojea, 2015; Daigneault et al., 2016; Estrella et al., 2016)¹²⁴. Payment for ecosystem services can provide incentives to land owners and natural resource managers to preserve environmental services with synergies with SDGs 1 and 13 (Arriagada et al., 2015)¹²⁵, when implementation challenges are overcome (Calvet-Mir et al., 2015; Wegner, 2016; Chan et al., 2017)¹²⁶. Trade-offs include loss of other economic land use types, tension between biodiversity and adaptation priorities, and conflicts over governance (Wamsler et al., 2014; Ojea, 2015)¹²⁷.

Community-based adaptation: Community-based adaptation (CBA) (see Chapter 4, Sections 4.3.3.2) enhances resilience and sustainability of adaptation plans (Ford et al., 2016; Fernandes-Jesus et al., 2017; Grantham and Rudd, 2017; Gustafson et al., 2017)¹²⁸. Yet negative impacts occur if it fails to fairly represent vulnerable populations and to foster long-term social resilience (Ensor, 2016; Taylor Aiken et al., 2017)¹²⁹. Mainstreaming CBA into planning and decision-making enables the attainment of SDGs 5, 10 and 16 (Archer et al., 2014; Reid and Huq, 2014; Vardakoulias and Nicholles, 2014; Cutter, 2016; Kim et al., 2017)¹³⁰. Incorporating multiple forms of indigenous and local knowledge is an important element of CBA, as shown for instance in the Arctic region (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.5.5, Box 4.3, Cross-Chapter Box 9) (Apgar et al., 2015; Armitage, 2015; Pearce et al., 2015; Chief et al., 2016; Cobbinah and Anane, 2016; Ford et al., 2016)¹³¹. Indigenous and local knowledge can be synergistic with achieving SDGs 2, 6 and 10 (Ayers et al., 2014; Lasage et al., 2015; Regmi and Star, 2015; Berner et al., 2016; Chief et al., 2016; Murtinho, 2016; Reid, 2016)¹³².

There are clear synergies between adaptation options and several SDGs, such as poverty eradication, elimination of hunger, clean water and health (robust evidence, high agreement), as well-integrated adaptation supports sustainable development (Eakin et al., 2014; Weisser et al., 2014; Adam, 2015; Smucker et al., 2015)¹³³. Substantial synergies are observed in the agricultural and health sectors, and in ecosystem-based adaptations. However, particular adaptation strategies can lead to adverse consequences for developmental outcomes (medium evidence, high agreement). Adaptation strategies that advance one SDG can result in trade-offs with other SDGs; for instance, agricultural adaptation to enhance food security (SDG 2) causing negative impacts for health, equality and healthy ecosystems (SDGs 3, 5, 6, 10, 14 and 15), and resilience to heat stress increasing energy consumption (SDGs 3 and 7) and high-cost adaptation in resource-constrained contexts (medium evidence, medium agreement).

In a 1.5°C warmer world, adaptation measures and options would need to be intensified, accelerated and scaled up. This entails not only the right ‘mix’ of options (asking ‘right for whom and for what?’) but also a forward-looking understanding of dynamic trajectories, that is adaptation pathways (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1), best understood as decision-making processes over sets of potential action sequenced over time (Câmpeanu and Fazey, 2014; Wise et al., 2014)¹³⁴. Given the scarcity of literature on adaptation pathways that navigate place-specific warming experiences at 1.5°C, this section presents insights into current local decision-making for adaptation futures. This grounded evidence shows that choices between possible pathways, at different scales and for different groups of people, are shaped by uneven power structures and historical legacies that create their own, often unforeseen change (Fazey et al., 2016; Bosomworth et al., 2017; Lin et al., 2017; Murphy et al., 2017; Pelling et al., 2018)¹³⁵.

Pursuing a place-specific adaptation pathway approach towards a 1.5°C warmer world harbours the potential for significant positive outcomes, with synergies for well-being possibilities to ‘leap-frog the SDGs’ (J.R.A. Butler et al., 2016)¹³⁶, in countries at all levels of development (medium evidence, high agreement). It allows for identifying local, socially salient tipping points before they are crossed, based on what people value and trade-offs that are acceptable to them (Barnett et al., 2014, 2016; Gorddard et al., 2016; Tschakert et al., 2017)¹³⁷. Yet evidence also reveals adverse impacts that reinforce rather than reduce existing social inequalities and hence may lead to poverty traps (medium evidence, high agreement) (Nagoda, 2015; Warner et al., 2015; Barnett et al., 2016; J.R.A. Butler et al., 2016; Godfrey-Wood and Naess, 2016; Pelling et al., 2016; Albert et al., 2017; Murphy et al., 2017)¹³⁸.

Past development trajectories as well as transformational adaptation plans can constrain adaptation futures by reinforcing dominant political-economic structures and processes, and narrowing option spaces; this leads to maladaptive pathways that preclude alternative, locally relevant and sustainable development initiatives and increase vulnerabilities (Warner and Kuzdas, 2017; Gajjar et al., 2018)¹³⁹. Such dominant pathways tend to validate the practices, visions and values of existing governance regimes and powerful members of a community while devaluing those of less privileged stakeholders. Examples from Romania, the Solomon Islands and Australia illustrate such pathway dynamics in which individual economic gains and prosperity matter more than community cohesion and solidarity; this discourages innovation, exacerbates inequalities and further erodes adaptive capacities of the most vulnerable (Davies et al., 2014; Fazey et al., 2016; Bosomworth et al., 2017)¹⁴⁰. In the city of London, United Kingdom, the dominant adaptation and disaster risk management pathway promotes resilience that emphasizes self-reliance; yet it intensifies the burden on low-income citizens, the elderly, migrants and others unable to afford flood insurance or protect themselves against heat waves (Pelling et al., 2016)¹⁴¹. Adaptation pathways in the Bolivian Altiplano have transformed subsistence farmers into world-leading quinoa producers, but loss of social cohesion and traditional values, dispossession and loss of ecosystem services now constitute undesirable trade-offs (Chelleri et al., 2016)¹⁴².

A narrow view of adaptation decision-making, for example focused on technical solutions, tends to crowd out more participatory processes (Lawrence and Haasnoot, 2017; Lin et al., 2017)¹⁴³, obscures contested values and reinforces power asymmetries (Bosomworth et al., 2017; Singh, 2018)¹⁴⁴. A situated and context-specific understanding of adaptation pathways that galvanizes diverse knowledge, values and joint initiatives helps to overcome dominant path dependencies, avoid trade-offs that intensify inequities and challenge policies detached from place (Fincher et al., 2014; Wyborn et al., 2015; Murphy et al., 2017; Gajjar et al., 2018)¹⁴⁵. These insights suggest that adaptation pathway approaches to prepare for 1.5°C warmer futures would be difficult to achieve without considerations for inclusiveness, place-specific trade-off deliberations, redistributive measures and procedural justice mechanisms to facilitate equitable transformation (medium evidence, high agreement).

Adopting stringent climate mitigation options can generate multiple positive non-climate benefits that have the potential to reduce the costs of achieving sustainable development (IPCC, 2014b; Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2014, 2016; Schaeffer et al., 2015; von Stechow et al., 2015)¹⁶⁴. Understanding the positive impacts (synergies) but also the negative impacts (trade-offs) is key for selecting mitigation options and policy choices that maximize the synergies between mitigation and developmental actions (Hildingsson and Johansson, 2015; Nilsson et al., 2016; Delponte et al., 2017; van Vuuren et al., 2017b; McCollum et al., 2018b)¹⁶⁵. Aligning mitigation response options to sustainable development objectives can ensure public acceptance (IPCC, 2014a)¹⁶⁶, encourage faster action (Lechtenboehmer and Knoop, 2017)¹⁶⁷ and support the design of equitable mitigation (Holz et al., 2018; Winkler et al., 2018)¹⁶⁸ that protect human rights (MRFCJ, 2015b)¹⁶⁹ (Section 5.5.3).

This sub-section assesses available literature on the interactions of individual mitigation options (see Chapter 2, Section 2.3.1.2, Chapter 4, Sections 4.2 and 4.3) with sustainable development and the SDGs and underlying targets. Table 5.2 presents an assessment of these synergies and trade-offs and the strength of the interaction using an SDG-interaction score (see Glossary) (McCollum et al., 2018b)¹⁷⁰, with evidence and agreements levels. Figure 5.2 presents the information of Table 5.2, showing gross (not net) interactions with the SDGs. This detailed assessment of synergies and trade-offs of individual mitigation options with the SDGs (Table 5.2 a–d and Figure 5.2) reveals that the number of synergies exceeds that of trade-offs. Mitigation response options in the energy demand sector, AFOLU and oceans have more positive interactions with a larger number of SDGs compared to those on the energy supply side (robust evidence, high agreement).

While previous sections have focused on individual mitigation options and their interaction with sustainable development and the SDGs, this section takes a systems perspective. Emphasis is on quantitative pathways depicting path-dependent evolutions of human and natural systems over time. Specifically, the focus is on fundamental transformations and thus stringent mitigation policies consistent with 1.5°C or 2°C, and the differential synergies and trade-offs with respect to the various sustainable development dimensions.

Both 1.5°C and 2°C pathways would require deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and large-scale changes of energy supply and demand, as well as in agriculture and forestry systems (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4). For the assessment of the sustainable development implications of these pathways, this chapter draws upon studies that show the aggregated impact of mitigation for multiple sustainable development dimensions (Grubler et al., 2018; McCollum et al., 2018b; Rogelj et al., 2018)²²⁹ and across multiple integrated assessment modelling (IAM) frameworks. Often these tools are linked to disciplinary models covering specific SDGs in more detail (Cameron et al., 2016; Rao et al., 2017; Grubler et al., 2018; McCollum et al., 2018b)²³⁰. Using multiple IAMs and disciplinary models is important for a robust assessment of the sustainable development implications of different pathways. Emphasis is on multi-regional studies, which can be aggregated to the global scale. The recent literature on 1.5°C mitigation pathways has begun to provide quantifications for a range of sustainable development dimensions, including air pollution and health, food security and hunger, energy access, water security, and multidimensional poverty and equity.

Insights into climate-compatible development (see Glossary) illustrate how integration between adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development works in context-specific projects, how synergies are achieved and what challenges are encountered during implementation (Stringer et al., 2014; Suckall et al., 2014; Antwi-Agyei et al., 2017a; Bickersteth et al., 2017; Kalafatis, 2017; Nunan, 2017)²⁶⁵. The operationalization of climate-compatible development, including climate-smart agriculture and carbon-forestry projects (Lipper et al., 2014; Campbell et al., 2016; Quan et al., 2017)²⁶⁶, shows multilevel and multisector trade-offs involving ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ across governance levels (high confidence) (Kongsager and Corbera, 2015; Naess et al., 2015; Karlsson et al., 2017; Tanner et al., 2017; Taylor, 2017; Wood, 2017; Ficklin et al., 2018)²⁶⁷. Issues of power, participation, values, equity, inequality and justice transcend case study examples of attempted integrated approaches (Nunan, 2017; Phillips et al., 2017; Stringer et al., 2017; Wood, 2017)²⁶⁸, also reflected in policy frameworks for integrated outcomes (Stringer et al., 2014; Di Gregorio et al., 2017; Few et al., 2017; Tanner et al., 2017)²⁶⁹.

Ultimately, reconciling trade-offs between development needs and emissions reductions towards a 1.5°C warmer world requires a dynamic view of the interlinkages between adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development (Nunan, 2017)²⁷⁰. This entails recognition of the ways in which development contexts shape the choice and effectiveness of interventions, limit the range of responses afforded to communities and governments, and potentially impose injustices upon vulnerable groups (UNRISD, 2016; Thornton and Comberti, 2017)²⁷¹. A variety of approaches, both quantitative and qualitative, exist to examine possible sustainable development pathways under which climate and sustainable development goals can be achieved, and synergies and trade-offs for transformation identified (Sections 5.3 and 5.4).

This section focuses on the growing body of pathways literature describing the dynamic and systemic integration of mitigation and adaptation with sustainable development in the context of a 1.5°C warmer world. These studies are critically important for the identification of ‘enabling’ conditions under which climate and the SDGs can be achieved, and thus help the design of transformation strategies that maximize synergies and avoid potential trade-offs (Sections 5.3 and 5.4). Full integration of sustainable development dimensions is, however, challenging, given their diversity and the need for high temporal, spatial and social resolution to address local effects, including heterogeneity related to poverty and equity (von Stechow et al., 2015)²⁷². Research on long-term climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways has covered individual SDGs to different degrees. Interactions between climate and other SDGs have been explored for SDGs 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 12, 14 and 15 (Clarke et al., 2014; Abel et al., 2016; von Stechow et al., 2016; Rao et al., 2017)²⁷³, while interactions with SDGs 1, 5, 11 and 16 remain largely underexplored in integrated long-term scenarios (Zimm et al., 2018)²⁷⁴.

Quantitative pathways studies now better represent ‘nexus’ approaches to assess sustainable development dimensions. In such approaches (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.3.8), a subset of sustainable development dimensions are investigated together because of their close relationships (Welsch et al., 2014; Conway et al., 2015; Keairns et al., 2016; Parkinson et al., 2016; Rasul and Sharma, 2016; Howarth and Monasterolo, 2017)²⁷⁵. Compared to single-objective climate–SDG assessments (Section 5.4.2), nexus solutions attempt to integrate complex interdependencies across diverse sectors in a systems approach for consistent analysis. Recent pathways studies show how water, energy and climate (SDGs 6, 7 and 13) interact (Parkinson et al., 2016; McCollum et al., 2018b)²⁷⁶ and call for integrated water–energy investment decisions to manage systemic risks. For instance, the provision of bioenergy, important in many 1.5°C-consistent pathways, can help resolve ‘nexus challenges’ by alleviating energy security concerns, but can also have adverse ‘nexus impacts’ on food security, water use and biodiversity (Lotze-Campen et al., 2014; Bonsch et al., 2016)²⁷⁷. Policies that improve resource use efficiency across sectors can maximize synergies for sustainable development (Bartos and Chester, 2014; McCollum et al., 2018b; van Vuuren et al., 2018)²⁷⁸. Mitigation compatible with 1.5°C can significantly reduce impacts and adaptation needs in the nexus sectors compared to 2°C (Byers et al., 2018)²⁷⁹. In order to avoid trade-offs due to high carbon pricing of 1.5°C pathways, regulation in specific areas may complement price-based instruments. Such combined policies generally lead also to more early action maximizing synergies and avoiding some of the adverse climate effects for sustainable development (Bertram et al., 2018)²⁸⁰.

The comprehensive analysis of climate change in the context of sustainable development requires suitable reference scenarios that lend themselves to broader sustainable development analyses. The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) (Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1) (O’Neill et al., 2017a; Riahi et al., 2017)²⁸¹ constitute an important first step in providing a framework for the integrated assessment of adaptation and mitigation and their climate–development linkages (Ebi et al., 2014)²⁸². The five underlying SSP narratives (O’Neill et al., 2017a)²⁸³ map well into some of the key SDG dimensions, with one of the pathways (SSP1) explicitly depicting sustainability as the main theme (van Vuuren et al., 2017b)²⁸⁴.

To date, no pathway in the literature proves to achieve all 17 SDGs because several targets are not met or not sufficiently covered in the analysis, hence resulting in a sustainability gap (Zimm et al., 2018)²⁸⁵. The SSPs facilitate the systematic exploration of different sustainable dimensions under ambitious climate objectives. SSP1 proves to be in line with eight SDGs (3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 and 15) and several of their targets in a 2°C warmer world (van Vuuren et al., 2017b; Zimm et al., 2018)²⁸⁶. However, important targets for SDGs 1, 2 and 4 (i.e., people living in extreme poverty, people living at the risk of hunger and gender gap in years of schooling) are not met in this scenario.

The SSPs show that sustainable socio-economic conditions will play a key role in reaching stringent climate targets (Riahi et al., 2017; Rogelj et al., 2018)²⁸⁷. Recent modelling work has examined 1.5°C-consistent, stringent mitigation scenarios for 2100 applied to the SSPs, using six different IAMs. Despite the limitations of these models, which are coarse approximations of reality, robust trends can be identified (Rogelj et al., 2018)²⁸⁸. SSP1 – which depicts broader ‘sustainability’ as well as enhancing equity and poverty reductions – is the only pathway where all models could reach 1.5°C and is associated with the lowest mitigation costs across all SSPs. A decreasing number of models was successful for SSP2, SSP4 and SSP5, respectively, indicating distinctly higher risks of failure due to high growth and energy intensity as well as geographical and social inequalities and uneven regional development. And reaching 1.5°C has even been found infeasible in the less sustainable SSP3 – ‘regional rivalry’ (Fujimori et al., 2017b; Riahi et al., 2017)²⁸⁹. All these conclusions hold true if a 2°C objective is considered (Calvin et al., 2017; Fujimori et al., 2017b; Popp et al., 2017; Riahi et al., 2017)²⁹⁰. Rogelj et al. (2018)²⁹¹ also show that fewer scenarios are, however, feasible across different SSPs in case of 1.5°C, and mitigation costs substantially increase in 1.5°C pathways compared to 2°C pathways.

There is a wide range of SSP-based studies focusing on the connections between adaptation/impacts and different sustainable development dimensions (Hasegawa et al., 2014; Ishida et al., 2014; Arnell et al., 2015; Bowyer et al., 2015; Burke et al., 2015; Lemoine and Kapnick, 2016; Rozenberg and Hallegatte, 2016; Blanco et al., 2017; Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017; O’Neill et al., 2017a; Rutledge et al., 2017; Byers et al., 2018)²⁹². New methods for projecting inequality and poverty (downscaled to sub-national rural and urban levels as well as spatially explicit levels) have enabled advanced SSP-based assessments of locally sustainable development implications of avoided impacts and related adaptation needs. For instance, Byers et al. (2018)²⁹³ find that, in a 1.5°C warmer world, a focus on sustainable development can reduce the climate risk exposure of populations vulnerable to poverty by more than an order of magnitude (Section 5.2.2). Moreover, aggressive reductions in between-country inequality may decrease the emissions intensity of global economic growth (Rao and Min, 2018)²⁹⁴. This is due to the higher potential for decoupling of energy from income growth in lower-income countries, due to high potential for technological advancements that reduce the energy intensity of growth of poor countries – critical also for reaching 1.5°C in a socially and economically equitable way. Participatory downscaling of SSPs in several European Union countries and in Central Asia shows numerous possible pathways of solutions to the 2°C–1.5°C goal, depending on differential visions (Tàbara et al., 2018)²⁹⁵. Other participatory applications of the SSPs, for example in West Africa (Palazzo et al., 2017)²⁹⁶ and the southeastern United States (Absar and Preston, 2015)²⁹⁷, illustrate the potentially large differences in adaptive capacity within regions and between sectors.

Harnessing the full potential of the SSP framework to inform sustainable development requires: (i) further elaboration and extension of the current SSPs to cover sustainable development objectives explicitly; (ii) the development of new or variants of current narratives that would facilitate more SDG-focused analyses with climate as one objective (among other SDGs) (Riahi et al., 2017)²⁹⁸; (iii) scenarios with high regional resolution (Fujimori et al., 2017b)²⁹⁹; (iv) a more explicit representation of institutional and governance change associated with the SSPs (Zimm et al., 2018)³⁰⁰; and (v) a scale-up of localized and spatially explicit vulnerability, poverty and inequality estimates, which have emerged in recent publications based on the SSPs (Byers et al., 2018)³⁰¹ and are essential to investigate equity dimensions (Klinsky and Winkler, 2018)³⁰².

This section assesses the literature on pathways as solution-oriented trajectories and decision-making processes for attaining transformative visions for a 1.5°C warmer world. It builds on climate-resilient development pathways (CRDPs) introduced in the AR5 (Section 5.1.2) (Olsson et al., 2014)³⁰³ as well as growing literature (e.g., Eriksen et al., 2017; Johnson, 2017; Orindi et al., 2017; Kirby and O’Mahony, 2018; Solecki et al., 2018)³⁰⁴ that uses CRDPs as a conceptual and aspirational idea for steering societies towards low-carbon, prosperous and ecologically safe futures. Such a notion of pathways foregrounds decision-making processes at local to national levels to situate transformation, resilience, equity and well-being in the complex reality of specific places, nations and communities (Harris et al., 2017; Ziervogel et al., 2017; Fazey et al., 2018; Gajjar et al., 2018; Klinsky and Winkler, 2018; Patterson et al., 2018; Tàbara et al., 2018)³⁰⁵.

Pathways compatible with 1.5°C warming are not merely scenarios to envision possible futures but processes of deliberation and implementation that address societal values, local priorities and inevitable trade-offs. This includes attention to politics and power that perpetuate business-as-usual trajectories (O’Brien, 2016; Harris et al., 2017)³⁰⁶, the politics that shape sustainability and capabilities of everyday life (Agyeman et al., 2016; Schlosberg et al., 2017)³⁰⁷, and ingredients for community resilience and transformative change (Fazey et al., 2018)³⁰⁸. Chartering CRDPs encourages locally situated and problem-solving processes to negotiate and operationalize resilience ‘on the ground’ (Beilin and Wilkinson, 2015; Harris et al., 2017; Ziervogel et al., 2017)³⁰⁹. This entails contestation, inclusive governance and iterative engagement of diverse populations with varied needs, aspirations, agency and rights claims, including those most affected, to deliberate trade-offs in a multiplicity of possible pathways (high confidence) (see Figure 5.5) (Stirling, 2014; Vale, 2014; Walsh-Dilley and Wolford, 2015; Biermann et al., 2016; J.R.A. Butler et al., 2016; O’Brien, 2016, 2018; Harris et al., 2017; Jones and Tanner, 2017; Mapfumo et al., 2017; Rosenbloom, 2017; Gajjar et al., 2018; Klinsky and Winkler, 2018; Lyon, 2018; Tàbara et al., 2018)³¹⁰.

Significant gaps in green investment constrain transitions to a low-carbon economy aligned with development objectives (Volz et al., 2015; Campiglio, 2016)⁴⁴⁵. Hence, unlocking new forms of public, private and public–private financing is essential to support environmental sustainability of the economic system (Croce et al., 2011; Blyth et al., 2015; Falcone et al., 2018)⁴⁴⁶ (see Chapter 4, Section 4.4.5). To avoid risks of undesirable trade-offs with the SDGs caused by national budget constraints, improved access to international climate finance is essential for supporting adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development, especially for LDCs and SIDS (medium evidence, high agreement) (Shine and Campillo, 2016; Wood, 2017)⁴⁴⁷. Care needs to be taken when international donors or partnership arrangements influence project financing structures (Kongsager and Corbera, 2015; Purdon, 2015; Phillips et al., 2017; Ficklin et al., 2018)⁴⁴⁸. Conventional climate funding schemes, especially the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), have shown positive effects on sustainable development but also adverse consequences, for example, on adaptive capacities of rural households and uneven distribution of costs and benefits, often exacerbating inequalities (robust evidence, high agreement) (Aggarwal, 2014; Brohé, 2014; He et al., 2014; Schade and Obergassel, 2014; Smits and Middleton, 2014; Wood et al., 2016a; Horstmann and Hein, 2017; Kreibich et al., 2017)⁴⁴⁹. Close consideration of recipients’ context-specific needs when designing financial support helps to overcome these limitations as it better aligns community needs, national policy objectives and donors’ priorities; puts the emphasis on the increase of transparency and predictability of support; and fosters local capacity building (medium evidence, high agreement) (Barrett, 2013; Boyle et al., 2013; Shine and Campillo, 2016; Ley, 2017; Sánchez and Izzo, 2017)⁴⁵⁰.

The development and transfer of technologies is another enabler for developing countries to contribute to the requirements of the 1.5°C objective while achieving climate resilience and their socio-economic development goals (see Chapter 4, Section 4.4.4). International-level governance would be needed to boost domestic innovation and the deployment of new technologies, such as negative emission technologies, towards the 1.5°C objective (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.7), but the alignment with local needs depends on close consideration of the specificities of the domestic context in countries at all levels of development (de Coninck and Sagar, 2015; IEA, 2015; Parikh et al., 2018)⁴⁵¹. Technology transfer supporting development in developing countries would require an understanding of local and national actors and institutions (de Coninck and Puig, 2015; de Coninck and Sagar, 2017; Michaelowa et al., 2018)⁴⁵², careful attention to the capacities in the entire innovation chain (Khosla et al., 2017; Olawuyi, 2017)⁴⁵³ and transfer of not only equipment but also knowledge (medium evidence, high agreement) (Murphy et al., 2015)⁴⁵⁴.

Multilevel governance in climate change has emerged as a key enabler for systemic transformation and effective governance (see Chapter 4, Section 4.4.1). On the one hand, low-carbon and climate-resilient development actions are often well aligned at the lowest scale possible (Suckall et al., 2015; Sánchez and Izzo, 2017)⁴⁵⁵, and informal, local institutions are critical in enhancing the adaptive capacity of countries and marginalized communities (Yaro et al., 2015)⁴⁵⁶. On the other hand, international and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs (Kongsager et al., 2016)⁴⁵⁷.

Governance approaches that coordinate and monitor multiscale policy actions and trade-offs across sectoral, local, national, regional and international levels are therefore best suited to implement goals towards 1.5°C warmer conditions and sustainable development (Ayers et al., 2014; Stringer et al., 2014; von Stechow et al., 2016; Gwimbi, 2017; Hayward, 2017; Maor et al., 2017; Roger et al., 2017; Michaelowa et al., 2018)⁴⁵⁸. Vertical and horizontal policy integration and coordination is essential to take into account the interplay and trade-offs between sectors and spatial scales (Duguma et al., 2014; Naess et al., 2015; von Stechow et al., 2015; Antwi-Agyei et al., 2017a; Di Gregorio et al., 2017; Runhaar et al., 2018)⁴⁵⁹, enable the dialogue between local communities and institutional bodies (Colenbrander et al., 2016)⁴⁶⁰, and involve non-state actors such as business, local governments and civil society operating across different scales (robust evidence, high agreement) (Hajer et al., 2015; Labriet et al., 2015; Hale, 2016; Pelling et al., 2016; Kalafatis, 2017; Lyon, 2018)⁴⁶¹.

Inclusive governance processes are critical for preparing for a 1.5°C warmer world (Fazey et al., 2018; O’Brien, 2018; Patterson et al., 2018)⁴⁶². These processes have been shown to serve the interests of diverse groups of people and enhance empowerment of often excluded stakeholders, notably women and youth (MRFCJ, 2015a; Dumont et al., 2017)⁴⁶³. They also enhance social- and co-learning which, in turn, facilitates accelerated and adaptive management and the scaling up of capacities for resilience building (Ensor and Harvey, 2015; Reij and Winterbottom, 2015; Tschakert et al., 2016; Binam et al., 2017; Dumont et al., 2017; Fazey et al., 2018; Lyon, 2018; O’Brien, 2018)⁴⁶⁴, and provides opportunities to blend indigenous, local and scientific knowledge (robust evidence, high agreement) (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.5.5, Box 4.3, Section 5.3) (Antwi-Agyei et al., 2017a; Coe et al., 2017; Thornton and Comberti, 2017)⁴⁶⁵ . Such co-learning has been effective in improving deliberative decision-making processes that incorporate different values and world views (Cundill et al., 2014; C. Butler et al., 2016; Ensor, 2016; Fazey et al., 2016; Gorddard et al., 2016; Aipira et al., 2017; Chung Tiam Fook, 2017; Maor et al., 2017)⁴⁶⁶, and create space for negotiating diverse interests and preferences (robust evidence, high agreement) (O’Brien et al., 2015; Gillard et al., 2016; DeCaro et al., 2017; Harris et al., 2017; Lahn, 2018)⁴⁶⁷.

Societal transformations to limit global warming to 1.5°C and strive for equity and well-being for all are not power neutral (Section 5.5.3). Development preferences are often shaped by powerful interests that determine the direction and pace of change, anticipated benefits and beneficiaries, and acceptable and unacceptable trade-offs (Newell et al., 2014; Fazey et al., 2016; Tschakert et al., 2016; Winkler and Dubash, 2016; Wood et al., 2016b; Karlsson et al., 2017; Quan et al., 2017; Tanner et al., 2017)⁴⁶⁸. Each development pathway, including legacies and path dependencies, creates its own set of opportunities and challenges and winners and losers, both within and across countries (Figure 5.5) (robust evidence, high agreement) (Mathur et al., 2014; Phillips et al., 2017; Stringer et al., 2017; Wood, 2017; Ficklin et al., 2018; Gajjar et al., 2018)⁴⁶⁹.

Addressing the uneven distribution of power is critical to ensure that societal transformation towards a 1.5°C warmer world does not exacerbate poverty and vulnerability or create new injustices but rather encourages equitable transformational change (Patterson et al., 2018)⁴⁷⁰. Equitable outcomes are enhanced when they pay attention to just outcomes for those negatively affected by change (Newell et al., 2014; Dilling et al., 2015; Naess et al., 2015; Sovacool et al., 2015; Cervigni and Morris, 2016; Keohane and Victor, 2016)⁴⁷¹ and promote human rights, increase equality and reduce power asymmetries within societies (robust evidence, high agreement) (UNRISD, 2016; Robinson and Shine, 2018)⁴⁷².

The profound transformations that would be needed to integrate sustainable development and 1.5°C-compatible pathways call for examining the values, ethics, attitudes and behaviours that underpin societies (Hartzell-Nichols, 2017; O’Brien, 2018; Patterson et al., 2018)⁴⁷³. Infusing values that promote sustainable development (Holden et al., 2017)⁴⁷⁴, overcome individual economic interests and go beyond economic growth (Hackmann, 2016)⁴⁷⁵, encourage desirable and transformative visions (Tàbara et al., 2018)⁴⁷⁶, and care for the less fortunate (Howell and Allen, 2017)⁴⁷⁷ is part and parcel of climate-resilient and sustainable development pathways. This entails helping societies and individuals to strive for sufficiency in resource consumption within planetary boundaries alongside sustainable and equitable well-being (O’Neill et al., 2018)⁴⁷⁸. Navigating 1.5°C societal transformations, characterized by action from local to global, stresses the core commitment to social justice, solidarity and cooperation, particularly regarding the distribution of responsibilities, rights and mutual obligations between nations (medium evidence, high agreement) (Patterson et al., 2018; Robinson and Shine, 2018)⁴⁷⁹.