Figure 9.14

Figure 9.14 |  Summary of confidence in the direction of projected change in climate impact drivers (CIDs) in Africa. Projected changes represent the aggregate changes characteristic for mid-century for a range of scenarios, including: medium emission scenarios RCP4.5, SSP3-4.5, Scenario A1B from Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), or higher emissions scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5, SSP5-RCP8.5), within each AR6 WGI region (inset map) approximately corresponding to global warming levels between 2°C and 2.4°C (for CIDs that are independent of sea level rise). CIDs are drivers of impacts that are of climatic origin (that is, physical climate system conditions including means and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. The table also includes the assessment of observed or projected time-of-emergence of the CID change signal from the natural interannual variability if found with at least medium confidence (dots). Emergence of a climate change signal or trend refers to when a change in climate (the ‘signal’) becomes larger than the amplitude of natural or internal variations (the ‘noise’). The figure is a modified version of Table 12.3 in Chapter 12 of WGI (Ranasinghe et al., 2021), please see this chapter for definitions of the various climate impact drivers and the basis for confidence levels of the assessment. Please note these WGI regions do not directly correspond to the regionalisation in this chapter nor do we assess climate risks for Madagascar.