Figure 4.15

Figure 4.15 |  Projected percentage changes in annual mean total column soil moisture relative to 1981–2010 at global warming levels (GWLs) of 4°C (top), 2°C (middle) and 1.5°C (bottom) for the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble of GCMs driven by SSP5-8.5 concentrations. The distribution of outcomes is shown at local scales with the 5th, 50th and 95th percentile soil moisture changes in individual grid boxes. Note that these are uncertainties at individual points and are not spatially coherent, that is, they do not represent plausible global patterns of change. Results for 1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C global warming are defined as 20-year means relative to 1850–1900 and use 34, 34 and 26 ensemble members, respectively, due to some members not reaching 4°C global warming. Fewer models are shown here than in Figure 4.10 on precipitation and Figure 4.14 on ET because some do not provide soil moisture output.