Figure 4.11

Figure 4.11 |  Agreement between different multi-model ensembles on significant changes in (a) annual mean precipitation and (b) annual maximum 1-d precipitation (Rx1day) at 2°C global warming (Uhe et al., 2021). Using central estimates from five ensembles of climate models (CMIP5, CMIP6, HAPPI, HELIX and UKCP18) using different models and different experimental designs for the ensembles, the maps show the number of ensembles for which the central estimate shows a significant drying or wetting change at 2°C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. The different ensembles reach 2°C global warming at different times. The projected changes are aggregated over the new climatic regions defined for IPCC AR6 (Iturbide et al., 2020). Hatched regions show where different ensembles project significant changes in opposite directions, i.e., there is no agreement on either drying or wetting. Regions with thick outlines are where CMIP6 disagrees with three of the other four ensembles on the significance of the change, highlighting where over-relying on CMIP6 alone may not fully represent the level of confidence in the projections.