Figure 3.14

Figure 3.14 |  Relative trends in projected regional shoreline change (advance/retreat relative to 2010). Frequency distributions of median projected change by (a,c) 2050 and (b,d) 2100 under (a,b) RCP4.5 and (c,d) RCP8.5. Projections account for both long-term shoreline dynamics and sea level rise and assume no impediment to inland transgression of sandy beaches. Data for small island states are aggregated and plotted in the Caribbean. (Data are from Vousdoukas et al., 2020b.) Values for reference regions established in the WGI AR6 Atlas (Gutiérrez et al., 2021) were computed as area-weighted means from original country-level data. (For model assumptions and associated debate, see Vousdoukas et al., 2020a and Cooper et al., 2020a.)