Figure 7.15

Figure caption

Figure 7.15 | Relationship between historical and abrupt 4xCO2 net radiative feedbacks in ESMs. (a) Radiative feedbacks in CMIP6 ESMs estimated under historical forcing (values for GFDL CM4.0 and HadGEM3-CG3.1-LL from Winton et al. (2020) and Andrews et al. (2019), respectively); horizontal lines show the range across ensemble members. The other points show effective feedback values for 29 ESMs estimated using regression over the first 50 years ofabrupt 4xCO2 simulations as an analogue for historical warming (Dong et al., 2020). (b) Historical radiative feedbacks estimated from atmosphere-only ESMs with prescribed observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration changes (Andrews et al., 2018) based on a linear regression of global top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation against global near-surface air temperature over the period 1870–2010 (pattern of warming similar to Figure 7.14a) and compared with equilibrium feedbacks inabrupt 4xCO2 simulations of coupled versions of the same ESMs (pattern of warming similar to Figure 7.14b). In all cases, the equilibrium feedback magnitudes are estimated as CO₂ ERF divided by ECS where ECS is derived from regression over years 1–150 ofabrupt 4xCO2 simulations (Box 7.1); similar results are found if the equilibrium feedback is estimated directly from the slope of the linear regression. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 7.SM.14).