Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Figure 1

Cross-Chapter Box 4.1, Figure 1 | Potential impact of volcanic eruption on future global temperature change. CMIP5 projections of possible 21st-century futures under RCP4.5 after a 1257 Samalas magnitude volcanic eruption in 2044, from Bethke et al. (2017). (a) Volcanic ERF of the most volcanically active ensemble member, estimated from SAOD. (b) Annual mean global surface air temperature. Ensemble mean (solid) of future projections including volcanoes (blue) and excluding volcanoes (red) with 5–95% range (shading) and ensemble minima/maxima (dots); evolution of the most volcanically active member (black). Data created using a SMILE approach with NorESM1 in its CMIP5 configuration. See Sections 2.2.2 and 4.4.4 for more details. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 4.SM.1).