Figure 1.9

Figure caption

Figure 1.9 | Assessing past projections of global temperature change. (Top) Projected temperature change post-publication on a temperature vs time (1970–2020) and (bottom) temperature vs radiative forcing (1970–2017) basis for a selection of prominent climate model projections (taken from Hausfather et al., 2020). Model projections (using global surface air temperature, GSAT) are compared to temperature observations (using global mean surface temperature, GMST) from HadCRUT5 (black) and anthropogenic forcings (through 2017) from Dessler and Forster (2018), and have a baseline generated from the first five years of the projection period. Projections shown are: Manabe (1970), Rasool and Schneider (1971), Broecker (1975), Nordhaus (1977), Hansen et al. (1981, H81), Hansen et al. (1988, H88), Manabe and Stouffer (1993), along with the Energy Balance Model (EBM) projections from FAR, SAR and TAR, and the multi-model mean projection using CMIP3 simulations of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario from AR4. H81 and H88 show most expected scenarios 1 and B, respectively. See Hausfather et al. (2020) for more details of the projections. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 1.SM.1).