Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1, Figure 2

Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.1, Figure 2 | Climate change signals are more separable from noise at larger spatial scales. The figure shows the global warming level associated with the emergence of a significant increase in the probability, due to anthropogenic forcing, in the 1-in-20-year daily precipitation event. It uses a 500-year sample from the CanESM2 large ensemble simulations. The left panel uses data analysed over a single grid box, with no spatial aggregation, while the right box uses data averaged over 25 grid boxes to represent the regional scale, with moderate spatial aggregation. Aggregation over 25 grid boxes reduces natural variability, resulting in a smaller warming required for a clear separation between the signal and noise (after Kirchmeier‐Young et al., 2019).