5.4.5.3 Social and economic impacts
Climate change impacts on forestry and a shift in production preferences (e.g., towards biofuels) will translate into social and economic impacts through the relocation of forest economic activity. Distributional effects would involve businesses, landowners, workers, consumers, governments and tourism, with some groups and regions benefiting while others experience losses. Net benefits will accrue to regions that experience increased forest production, while regions with declining activity will likely face net losses. If wood prices decline, as most models predict, consumers will experience net benefits, while producers experience net losses. Even though the overall economic benefits are likely to exceed losses, the loss of forest resources may directly affect 90% of the 1.2 billion forest-dependent people who live in extreme poverty (FAO, 2004a). Although forest-based communities in developing countries are likely to have modest impact on global wood production, they may be especially vulnerable because of the limited ability of rural, resource-dependent communities to respond to risk in a proactive manner (Davidson et al., 2003; Lawrence, 2003). Non-timber forest products (NTFP) such as fuel, forest foods or medicinal plants, are equally important for the livelihood of the rural communities. In many rural Sub-Saharan Africa communities, NTFP may supply over 50% of a farmer’s cash income and provide the health needs for over 80% of the population (FAO, 2004a). Yet little is known about the possible impacts on NFTP.
5.4.6 Capture fisheries and aquaculture: marine
and inland waters
World capture production of fish, crustaceans and molluscs in 2004 was more than twice that of aquaculture (Table 5.5), but since 1997 capture production decreased by 1%, whereas aquaculture increased by 59%. By 2030, capture production and aquaculture are projected to be closer to equality (93 Mt and 83 Mt, respectively) (FAO, 2002). Aquaculture resembles terrestrial animal husbandry more than it does capture fisheries and therefore shares many of the vulnerabilities and adaptations to climate change with that sector. Similarities between aquaculture and terrestrial animal husbandry include ownership, control of inputs, diseases and predators, and use of land and water.
Table 5.5. World fisheries production in 2004 (source: FAO, Yearbook of
| World production in Mt | Inland | Marine | Total |
|---|
| Capture production | Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, etc. | 8.8 | 85.8 | 94.6 |
| Aquaculture production | Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, etc. | 27.2 | 18.3 | 45.5 |
| Aquatic plants | 0.0 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
Some aquaculture, particularly of plants and molluscs, depends on naturally occurring nutrients and production, but the rearing of fish and Crustacea usually requires the addition of suitable food, obtained mainly from capture fisheries. Capture fisheries depend on the productivity of the natural ecosystems on which they are based and are therefore vulnerable to changes in primary production and how this production is transferred through the aquatic food chain (climate-induced change in production in natural aquatic ecosystems is dealt with in Chapter 4).
For aquatic systems we still lack the kind of experimental data and models used to predict agricultural crop yields under different climate scenarios; therefore, it is not possible to provide quantitative predictions such as are available for other sectors.