Pacific decadal variability Coupled decadal-to-inter-decadal variability of the atmospheric circulation and underlying ocean in the Pacific Basin. It is most prominent in the North Pacific, where fluctuations in the strength of the winter Aleutian Low pressure system co-vary with North Pacific sea surface temperatures, and are linked to decadal variations in atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperatures and ocean circulation throughout the whole Pacific Basin. Such fluctuations have the effect of modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Key measures of Pacific decadal variability are the North Pacific Index (NPI), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, all defined in Box 3.4.
Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern An atmospheric large-scale wave pattern featuring a sequence of tropospheric high- and low-pressure anomalies stretching from the subtropical west Pacific to the east coast of North America. See PNA pattern index, Box 3.4.
Palaeoclimate Climate during periods prior to the development of measuring instruments, including historic and geologic time, for which only proxy climate records are available.
Parametrization In climate models, this term refers to the technique of representing processes that cannot be explicitly resolved at the spatial or temporal resolution of the model (sub-grid scale processes) by relationships between model-resolved larger-scale flow and the area- or time-averaged effect of such sub-grid scale processes.
Patterns of climate variability See Modes of climate variability.
Percentile A percentile is a value on a scale of one hundred that indicates the percentage of the data set values that is equal to or below it. The percentile is often used to estimate the extremes of a distribution. For example, the 90th (10th) percentile may be used to refer to the threshold for the upper (lower) extremes.
Permafrost Ground (soil or rock and included ice and organic material) that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years (Van Everdingen, 1998).
pH pH is a dimensionless measure of the acidity of water (or any solution) given by its concentration of hydrogen ions (H+). pH is measured on a logarithmic scale where pH = –log10(H+). Thus, a pH decrease of 1 unit corresponds to a 10-fold increase in the concentration of H+, or acidity.
Photosynthesis The process by which plants take carbon dioxide from the air (or bicarbonate in water) to build carbohydrates, releasing oxygen in the process. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different responses to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. See Carbon dioxide fertilization; C3 plants; C4 plants.
Plankton Microorganisms living in the upper layers of aquatic systems. A distinction is made between phytoplankton, which depend on photosynthesis for their energy supply, and zooplankton, which feed on phytoplankton.
Pleistocene The earlier of two Quaternary epochs, extending from the end of the Pliocene, about 1.8 Ma, until the beginning of the Holocene about 11.6 ka.
Pollen analysis A technique of both relative dating and environmental reconstruction, consisting of the identification and counting of pollen types preserved in peat, lake sediments and other deposits. See Proxy.
Post-glacial rebound The vertical movement of the land and sea floor following the reduction of the load of an ice mass, for example, since the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka). The rebound is an isostatic land movement.
Precipitable water The total amount of atmospheric water vapour in a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area. It is commonly expressed in terms of the height of the water if completely condensed and collected in a vessel of the same unit cross section.
Precursors Atmospheric compounds that are not greenhouse gases or aerosols, but that have an effect on greenhouse gas or aerosol concentrations by taking part in physical or chemical processes regulating their production or destruction rates.
Predictability The extent to which future states of a system may be predicted based on knowledge of current and past states of the system.
Since knowledge of the climate system’s past and current states is generally imperfect, as are the models that utilise this knowledge to produce a climate prediction, and since the climate system is inherently nonlinear and chaotic, predictability of the climate system is inherently limited. Even with arbitrarily accurate models and observations, there may still be limits to the predictability of such a nonlinear system (AMS, 2000)
Pre-industrial See Industrial revolution.
Probability Density Function (PDF) A probability density function is a function that indicates the relative chances of occurrence of different outcomes of a variable. The function integrates to unity over the domain for which it is defined and has the property that the integral over a sub-domain equals the probability that the outcome of the variable lies within that sub-domain. For example, the probability that a temperature anomaly defined in a particular way is greater than zero is obtained from its PDF by integrating the PDF over all possible temperature anomalies greater than zero. Probability density functions that describe two or more variables simultaneously are similarly defined.
Projection A projection is a potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions in order to emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. See also Climate projection; Climate prediction.
Proxy A proxy climate indicator is a local record that is interpreted, using physical and biophysical principles, to represent some combination of climate-related variations back in time. Climate-related data derived in this way are referred to as proxy data. Examples of proxies include pollen analysis, tree ring records, characteristics of corals and various data derived from ice cores.
Quaternary The period of geological time following the Tertiary (65 Ma to 1.8 Ma). Following the current definition (which is under revision at present) the Quaternary extends from 1.8 Ma until the present. It is formed of two epochs, the Pleistocene and the Holocene.
Radiative forcing Radiative forcing is the change in the net, downward minus upward, irradiance (expressed in W m–2) at the tropopause due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the Sun. Radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values, and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium. Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for. For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is further defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value. Radiative forcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, a similar terminology for describing an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere.
Radiative forcing scenario A plausible representation of the future development of radiative forcing associated, for example, with changes in atmospheric composition or land use change, or with external factors such as variations in solar activity. Radiative forcing scenarios can be used as input into simplified climate models to compute climate projections.
Rapid climate change See Abrupt climate change.
Reanalysis Reanalyses are atmospheric and oceanic analyses of temperature, wind, current, and other meteorological and oceanographic quantities, created by processing past meteorological and oceanographic data using fixed state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and data assimilation techniques. Using fixed data assimilation avoids effects from the changing analysis system that occurs in operational analyses. Although continuity is improved, global reanalyses still suffer from changing coverage and biases in the observing systems.
Reconstruction The use of climate indicators to help determine (generally past) climates.
Reforestation Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests but that have been converted to some other use. For a discussion of the term forest and related terms such as afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, see the IPCC Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (IPCC, 2000). See also the Report on Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other Vegetation Types (IPCC, 2003)
Regime A regime is preferred states of the climate system, often representing one phase of dominant patterns or modes of climate variability.
Region A region is a territory characterised by specific geographical and climatological features. The climate of a region is affected by regional and local scale forcings like topography, land use characteristics, lakes, etc., as well as remote influences from other regions. See Teleconnection.
Relative sea level Sea level measured by a tide gauge with respect to the land upon which it is situated. Mean sea level is normally defined as the average relative sea level over a period, such as a month or a year, long enough to average out transients such as waves and tides. See Sea level change.
Reservoir A component of the climate system, other than the atmosphere, which has the capacity to store, accumulate or release a substance of concern, for example, carbon, a greenhouse gas or a precursor. Oceans, soils and forests are examples of reservoirs of carbon. Pool is an equivalent term (note that the definition of pool often includes the atmosphere). The absolute quantity of the substance of concern held within a reservoir at a specified time is called the stock.
Respiration The process whereby living organisms convert organic matter to carbon dioxide, releasing energy and consuming molecular oxygen.
Response time The response time or adjustment time is the time needed for the climate system or its components to re-equilibrate to a new state, following a forcing resulting from external and internal processes or feedbacks. It is very different for various components of the climate system. The response time of the troposphere is relatively short, from days to weeks, whereas the stratosphere reaches equilibrium on a time scale of typically a few months. Due to their large heat capacity, the oceans have a much longer response time: typically decades, but up to centuries or millennia. The response time of the strongly coupled surface-troposphere system is, therefore, slow compared to that of the stratosphere, and mainly determined by the oceans. The biosphere may respond quickly (e.g., to droughts), but also very slowly to imposed changes. See lifetime for a different definition of response time pertinent to the rate of processes affecting the concentration of trace gases.
Return period The average time between occurrences of a defined event (AMS, 2000).
Return value The highest (or, alternatively, lowest) value of a given variable, on average occurring once in a given period of time (e.g., in 10 years).
Scenario A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and key relationships. Scenarios may be derived from projections, but are often based on additional information from other sources, sometimes combined with a narrative storyline. See also SRES scenarios; Climate scenario; Emission scenario.
Sea ice Any form of ice found at sea that has originated from the freezing of seawater. Sea ice may be discontinuous pieces (ice floes) moved on the ocean surface by wind and currents (pack ice), or a motionless sheet attached to the coast (land-fast ice). Sea ice less than one year old is called first-year ice. Multi-year ice is sea ice that has survived at least one summer melt season.
Sea level change Sea level can change, both globally and locally, due to (i) changes in the shape of the ocean basins, (ii) changes in the total mass of water and (iii) changes in water density. Sea level changes induced by changes in water density are called steric. Density changes induced by temperature changes only are called thermosteric, while density changes induced by salinity changes are called halosteric. See also Relative Sea Level; Thermal expansion.
Sea level equivalent (SLE) The change in global average sea level that would occur if a given amount of water or ice were added to or removed from the oceans.
Seasonally frozen ground See Frozen ground.
Sea surface temperature (SST) The sea surface temperature is the temperature of the subsurface bulk temperature in the top few metres of the ocean, measured by ships, buoys and drifters. From ships, measurements of water samples in buckets were mostly switched in the 1940s to samples from engine intake water. Satellite measurements of skin temperature (uppermost layer; a fraction of a millimetre thick) in the infrared or the top centimetre or so in the microwave are also used, but must be adjusted to be compatible with the bulk temperature.
Sensible heat flux The flux of heat from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere that is not associated with phase changes of water; a component of the surface energy budget.
Sequestration See Uptake.
Significant wave height The average height of the highest one-third of the wave heights (sea and swell) occurring in a particular time period.
Sink Any process, activity or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the atmosphere.
Slab-ocean model A simplified presentation in a climate model of the ocean as a motionless layer of water with a depth of 50 to 100 m. Climate models with a slab ocean can only be used for estimating the equilibrium response of climate to a given forcing, not the transient evolution of climate. See Equilibrium and transient climate experiment.
Snow line The lower limit of permanent snow cover, below which snow does not accumulate.
Soil moisture Water stored in or at the land surface and available for evaporation.
Soil temperature See Ground temperature.
Solar activity The Sun exhibits periods of high activity observed in numbers of sunspots, as well as radiative output, magnetic activity and emission of high-energy particles. These variations take place on a range of time scales from millions of years to minutes. See Solar cycle.
Solar (‘11 year’) cycle A quasi-regular modulation of solar activity with varying amplitude and a period of between 9 and 13 years.
Solar radiation Electromagnetic radiation emitted by the Sun. It is also referred to as shortwave radiation. Solar radiation has a distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) determined by the temperature of the Sun, peaking in visible wavelengths. See also: Thermal infrared radiation, Insolation.
Soot Particles formed during the quenching of gases at the outer edge of flames of organic vapours, consisting predominantly of carbon, with lesser amounts of oxygen and hydrogen present as carboxyl and phenolic groups and exhibiting an imperfect graphitic structure. See Black carbon; Charcoal (Charlson and Heintzenberg, 1995, p. 406).
Source Any process, activity or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the atmosphere.
Southern Annular Mode (SAM) The fluctuation of a pattern like the Northern Annular Mode, but in the Southern Hemisphere. See SAM Index, Box 3.4.
Southern Oscillation See El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Spatial and temporal scales Climate may vary on a large range of spatial and temporal scales. Spatial scales may range from local (less than 100,000 km2), through regional (100,000 to 10 million km2) to continental (10 to 100 million km2). Temporal scales may range from seasonal to geological (up to hundreds of millions of years).
SRES scenarios SRES scenarios are emission scenarios developed by Nakićenović and Swart (2000) and used, among others, as a basis for some of the climate projections shown in Chapter 10 of this report. The following terms are relevant for a better understanding of the structure and use of the set of SRES scenarios:
Scenario family Scenarios that have a similar demographic, societal, economic and technical change storyline. Four scenario families comprise the SRES scenario set: A1, A2, B1 and B2.
Illustrative Scenario A scenario that is illustrative for each of the six scenario groups reflected in the Summary for Policymakers of Nakićenović and Swart (2000). They include four revised scenario markers for the scenario groups A1B, A2, B1, B2, and two additional scenarios for the A1FI and A1T groups. All scenario groups are equally sound.
Marker Scenario A scenario that was originally posted in draft form on the SRES website to represent a given scenario family. The choice of markers was based on which of the initial quantifications best reflected the storyline, and the features of specific models. Markers are no more likely than other scenarios, but are considered by the SRES writing team as illustrative of a particular storyline. They are included in revised form in Nakićenović and Swart (2000). These scenarios received the closest scrutiny of the entire writing team and via the SRES open process. Scenarios were also selected to illustrate the other two scenario groups.
Storyline A narrative description of a scenario (or family of scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics, relationships between key driving forces and the dynamics of their evolution.
Steric See Sea level change.
Stock See Reservoir.
Storm surge The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the sea due to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure and/or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being the excess above the level expected from the tidal variation alone at that time and place.
Storm tracks Originally, a term referring to the tracks of individual cyclonic weather systems, but now often generalised to refer to the regions where the main tracks of extratropical disturbances occur as sequences of low (cyclonic) and high (anticyclonic) pressure systems.
Stratosphere The highly stratified region of the atmosphere above the troposphere extending from about 10 km (ranging from 9 km at high latitudes to 16 km in the tropics on average) to about 50 km altitude.
Subduction Ocean process in which surface waters enter the ocean interior from the surface mixed layer through Ekman pumping and lateral advection. The latter occurs when surface waters are advected to a region where the local surface layer is less dense and therefore must slide below the surface layer, usually with no change in density.
Sunspots Small dark areas on the Sun. The number of sunspots is higher during periods of high solar activity, and varies in particular with the solar cycle.
Surface layer See Atmospheric boundary layer.
Surface temperature See Global surface temperature; Ground temperature; Land surface air temperature; Sea surface temperature.
Teleconnection A connection between climate variations over widely separated parts of the world. In physical terms, teleconnections are often a consequence of large-scale wave motions, whereby energy is transferred from source regions along preferred paths in the atmosphere.
Thermal expansion In connection with sea level, this refers to the increase in volume (and decrease in density) that results from warming water. A warming of the ocean leads to an expansion of the ocean volume and hence an increase in sea level. See Sea level change.
Thermal infrared radiation Radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere and the clouds. It is also known as terrestrial or longwave radiation, and is to be distinguished from the near-infrared radiation that is part of the solar spectrum. Infrared radiation, in general, has a distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) longer than the wavelength of the red colour in the visible part of the spectrum. The spectrum of thermal infrared radiation is practically distinct from that of shortwave or solar radiation because of the difference in temperature between the Sun and the Earth-atmosphere system.
Thermocline The layer of maximum vertical temperature gradient in the ocean, lying between the surface ocean and the abyssal ocean. In subtropical regions, its source waters are typically surface waters at higher latitudes that have subducted and moved equatorward. At high latitudes, it is sometimes absent, replaced by a halocline, which is a layer of maximum vertical salinity gradient.
Thermohaline circulation (THC) Large-scale circulation in the ocean that transforms low-density upper ocean waters to higher-density intermediate and deep waters and returns those waters back to the upper ocean. The circulation is asymmetric, with conversion to dense waters in restricted regions at high latitudes and the return to the surface involving slow upwelling and diffusive processes over much larger geographic regions. The THC is driven by high densities at or near the surface, caused by cold temperatures and/or high salinities, but despite its suggestive though common name, is also driven by mechanical forces such as wind and tides. Frequently, the name THC has been used synonymously with Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Thermokarst The process by which characteristic landforms result from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ground ice (Van Everdingen, 1998).
Thermosteric See Sea level change.
Tide gauge A device at a coastal location (and some deep-sea locations) that continuously measures the level of the sea with respect to the adjacent land. Time averaging of the sea level so recorded gives the observed secular changes of the relative sea level.
Total solar irradiance (TSI) The amount of solar radiation received outside the Earth’s atmosphere on a surface normal to the incident radiation, and at the Earth’s mean distance from the Sun.
Reliable measurements of solar radiation can only be made from space and the precise record extends back only to 1978. The generally accepted value is 1,368 W m−2 with an accuracy of about 0.2%. Variations of a few tenths of a percent are common, usually associated with the passage of sunspots across the solar disk. The solar cycle variation of TSI is of the order of 0.1% (AMS, 2000). See also Insolation.
Transient climate response See Climate sensitivity.
Tree rings Concentric rings of secondary wood evident in a cross-section of the stem of a woody plant. The difference between the dense, small-celled late wood of one season and the wide-celled early wood of the following spring enables the age of a tree to be estimated, and the ring widths or density can be related to climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation. See Proxy.
Trend In this report, the word trend designates a change, generally monotonic in time, in the value of a variable.
Tropopause The boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.
Troposphere The lowest part of the atmosphere, from the surface to about 10 km in altitude at mid-latitudes (ranging from 9 km at high latitudes to 16 km in the tropics on average), where clouds and weather phenomena occur. In the troposphere, temperatures generally decrease with height.
Turnover time See Lifetime.
Uncertainty An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the future state of the climate system) is unknown. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. It may have many types of sources, from quantifiable errors in the data to ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behaviour. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgement of a team of experts (see Moss and Schneider, 2000; Manning et al., 2004). See also Likelihood; Confidence.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the ‘stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. It contains commitments for all Parties. Under the Convention, Parties included in Annex I (all OECD countries and countries with economies in transition) aim to return greenhouse gas emissions not controlled by the Montreal Protocol to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The convention entered in force in March 1994. See Kyoto Protocol.
Uptake The addition of a substance of concern to a reservoir. The uptake of carbon containing substances, in particular carbon dioxide, is often called (carbon) sequestration.
Urban heat island (UHI) The relative warmth of a city compared with surrounding rural areas, associated with changes in runoff, the concrete jungle effects on heat retention, changes in surface albedo, changes in pollution and aerosols, and so on.
Ventilation The exchange of ocean properties with the atmospheric surface layer such that property concentrations are brought closer to equilibrium values with the atmosphere (AMS, 2000).
Volume mixing ratio See Mole fraction.
Walker Circulation Direct thermally driven zonal overturning circulation in the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with rising air in the western and sinking air in the eastern Pacific.
Water mass A volume of ocean water with identifiable properties (temperature, salinity, density, chemical tracers) resulting from its unique formation process. Water masses are often identified through a vertical or horizontal extremum of a property such as salinity.
Younger Dryas A period 12.9 to 11.6 kya, during the deglaciation, characterised by a temporary return to colder conditions in many locations, especially around the North Atlantic.